Beautiful Mountain Blog of Belmont

Belmont Homes Values - Week of May 14th 2012

This is our brief market report for the week of May 14th 2012. Belmont homes sales continue to hold steady for well priced homes, which have had sufficient market time and were properly advertised. Many of these homes are selling above the asking price. 

There are currently only 29 active homes for sale and 39 which are pending sale. Normally for Belmont an inventory over 50 homes for sale is indicative of a waning market for sellers.

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

Belmont Home Values - Week of April 16th 2012

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Belmont Home Sales - March 2012

Belmont Homes Sales on The Rise

After an extremely busy winter home selling season and an unusually active spring, these are the home sales in Belmont for March 2012.

The media hasn’t mentioned much about the multiple offers which are once again very prevalent, but then it usually takes several months of prolonged activity before sales become statistics. If you’re someone who would rather get ahead of the market, now’s a good time to assess your position in the housing market.

[click on the image for a full-sized graph]

NUMBER OF HOMES SOLD  - Belmont’s homes sales improved dramatically from March of 2011. Home Sales in Belmont were up 29%, from 17 sales last year to 22 this March. 

DAYS ON MARKET  - The time it took to sell a home in Belmont dropped from 43 days last March to only 38 this year.

PERCENT RECEIVED - Sellers not only sold their home faster they also received closer to their asking price. The average seller this March received 101.6% of their asking price compared to last March when sellers received 99.4%.

REDUCING THE PRICE -  Last year 29% of sellers had to lower their asking price expectations by on average $43,000 to attract a buyer. This March only 14% [three sellers] lowered their asking price before obtaining an offer. Either buyers are willing to pay more, or sellers are listening to their agent’s advice on pricing their home.

MEDIAN PRICE  - The Median price was up from last March’s $840,000 to this year’s $899,000, though the size home one could purchase this year was also larger by 12%, essentially negating any perceived increase in the median home price. Interestingly, this does not ring true with what we are seeing; for which we offer the explanation that statistics alone cannot account for the condition of the homes which sold. If last year homes which sold were smaller but in much better condition than the homes which sold this year, the price per square foot would be much higher for homes sold last year—which happens to be the case.

The Belmont home market is very strong right now. Most homes are selling in multiple offers. We recently sold a home at 1528 Altura Way in Belmont. Listed for $915,000 we received four offers and it sold in ten days for $962,000. This week we closed escrow on our listing at 2605 Read Avenue. We listed that home at $820,000 and it sold in ten days with 10 offers for $882,300!

As always, you are welcome to visit our web page for detailed statistics on the Belmont housing market. 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 
*These are all the home sales in Belmont, CA for last month. Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in any or all of these sales.

 

 

Time To Look Back At The Peninsula Housing Market for 2011

Time to look back at the Peninsula housing market in 2011.

Being in the trenches we know well ahead of the reported statistics how the housing market performed but it’s always interesting to look back and see what the numbers bear.

These two charts below represent the median home price for the past three years in Belmont and Palo Alto. We chose Palo Alto because that city enjoys leaded edge price stability and recovery. Belmont is less insulated from market volatility and is probably more typical of the average Peninsula city housing trend.

[Click on the images for a full-size graph]

As denoted by the red trend lines in both of these graphs, Peninsula housing prices, while suffering from typical seasonal fluctuations, are overall showing signs of a steady but slow increase in the median home price.

If this doesn’t seem to jive with the media reports of continual home price erosion it’s probably because the reports you’re hearing are for cities such as the one in our third chart below which represents a continual decline in home values in highly affected areas to our the north such as South San Francisco, Daly City and Colma.

This story is part of our monthly newsletter. If you would like receive our newsletter you may email us at Newsletter@morganhomes.com and you’ll be added to the list. Note—we never share our email list with anyone for any reason without your express permission.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

 

 

 

Belmont Homes Sales Show Continued Improvement

Welcome to the new norm. As you know if you have been following us for any length of time we provide a detailed analysis of the local housing market and Belmont’s housing market in particular. We’ve been gathering data since 1998 and have used it to contrast and compare varying market cycles over the years. However, comparing the reality of the new housing market to a market that was artificially inflated with substandard lending practices will provide for endless disappointment if a new base-line is not established.

Today’s market seems to reflect the new reality of stricter lending practices leading to fewer sales and more cautious buyers. This environment will undoubtedly continue for some time until the devastation in the housing industry which wiped out so many people’s equity is a distant memory. Just as the Consumer Confidence index was set at 100% in 1985 because it was neither a peak nor trough in the business cycle, we submit that at least for Belmont, after years of price and sales declines, that the more stable 2011 might become the new baseline by which future years are compared.

(click on the image to enlarge) *Data from the San Mateo Board of REALTORS MLS system.

Looking at the numbers…

Belmont homes sales for October 2011 were strong compared with last year.

BELMONT HOME SALES

Although two fewer homes traded hands this year in Belmont compared with last October, there are signs that the housing market may be stabilizing, as we anticipated.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price, while falling from last October’s $864,200 to $806,000 this year, does not reflect the size homes which sold last October were 13.5 percent larger, with a median price drop of only 7.2%. This helps us better understand that the median price while reported lower is probably higher than in October of last year.

DOM (days on market)

In October of 2011 it took on average 22 days to sell a home while last year that number was 46, more than double.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Forty-six percent of Belmont homes selling in October of 2010 had price reductions of on average $92,000 compared with this October where the seller had to lower their price by on average only $58,000 to attract a buyer.

SELLING vs. ASKING PRICE

This October 27% of the homes sold over the seller’s asking price by on average $64,000. Last October the 23% of homes sold for over the asking price receiving on average only $29,000 more.

In 2010 nearly 70% of the homes which sold went for less—by on average $33,000. This year 63% of the homes sold for on average $32,000 less.

INVENTORY

The number of homes available for sale impacts the price a seller might achieve based on the familiar principle of supply vs. demand. But an increase in supply can be the result of several factors which may in turn be the result of very different market forces. For example, if supply is increasing because homes are not selling, or home owners are out of work, or upside down in their mortgage, that negative environment might mean that buyers will also be concerned about their future and demand will drop.

But if supply increases because sellers are taking advantage of favorable move-up market conditions or perhaps they view the current strength of the local market as being in their favor, and demand remains constant, it could be an indication on a strengthening market.

There are currently 57 single family homes on the market in Belmont as compared with last October when there were 63 during the same period.  In Belmont, if we look at peak housing markets prior to the housing market collapse in 2007, we find that in October the typical inventory levels hovered around 35-40 homes for sale. Yet in periods of uncertainty—such as the October after September 11^th and the following year which was a landmark presidential election year, inventory level rose to 93 homes for sale in 2001 and 79 in 2002.

Does the market seem stronger than last year? Yes. Are seller’s lowering their expectations (asking price) to accommodate the reality of the new market conditions, yes. Hey interest rates don’t hurt either. Buyers are slowly dipping their toes into the icy waters of real estate as rates plummet and Bay Area job cuts seem to have waned.

We’re seeing more sellers and buyers out later in the year than ever before and we predict next spring will bring many new buyers to the purchase table along with many new homes to choose from.

All the best,

MorganHomes.com

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

Belmont Home Values And Sales for August 2011

Home sales in Belmont for the month of August posted some less than impressive statistics, indicating that values declined year-over-year as well as sales.

(Click on the image for a full sized graph)

MEDIAN HOME PRICE:

The median home price in Belmont dropped 2.9% over August of 2010 and the size home which you could buy in August of this year was 2.8% larger leading one to conclude that the prices actually dropped more than reported.

SALES:

Belmont home sales were down as well from 20 sales last August to 17 this year.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home was up from 44 days to 56.

PRICE REDUCTIONS:

This August eight of the 17 home sellers lowered their initial asking price by on average $69,000 and 12 sellers accepted $43,000 less for their home than they were asking. Two homes sold at the seller’s asking price and three homes sold for over asking by on average $29,000.

Last August eight home sellers lowered their asking price by on average $84,000 and when all was said and done 12 homes sold for $27,000 under the seller’s asking price, four homes sold at asking and three homes sold for on average $15,000 over what they seller had asked for their home.

We expect this pattern of monthly roller coaster statistics—ups and downs—to continue as no doubt we will continue to see Belmont home prices and sales bouncing along the bottom for some time to come.

Look for today’s announcement of all time low interest rates to spur some fall home sale activity. And if you haven’t refinanced, now appears to be a historically perfect time.

*The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

Belmont Home Values Bounce Along the Bottom - July 2011

July sales statistics are in for Belmont and the numbers continue to bounce along the bottom giving rise to more confusion as to where Belmont’s housing market is going up or down. When it’s difficult to determine if you are in a Buyer or a seller’s market you are probably in neither—like a “neap tide” of appreciation.

The reason it’s not clear by looking at the numbers is each month the size of homes which sell changes the median price more than any real monthly change in value. In order to get an accurate assessment of Belmont’s housing market trend we turn to longer trends—comparing the current quarter to the previous one or the same quarter a year before.

(click on the speadsheet for a larger view)

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price in Belmont rose from $846,000 last month to $924,800 or 9.3%. The median price also rose over last July by 6.3%.

The size homes which sold this July were 7.9% larger but only cost buyers 6.3% more. Part of the discrepancy can be associated with the inability to separate land from the building.

If we look at the 145 square foot difference in the size of homes sold in the two periods, and use the median price per square foot of the larger homes, it could account for up to $70,000 in price differential. All this means is an argument can be made that home values actually decreased $15,000 or 1.6% year over year.

SALES

Sales dropped considerably this July. Historically July homes sales for Belmont have hovered around 20-25 units. Last July there were 20 sales and this year there were only 14, underscoring the trepidation among homebuyers.

QUATRELY COMPARISON

The quarterly statistics for Belmont reveal a pronounced drop in Belmont home sales activity. Comparing Belmont home sales from the second quarter or 2010 to the same quarter in 2011 we find sales (unit sold) dropped 36%, while the number of new listings dropped 22%. Clearly there were fewer homes available to sell and to some degree that impacts sales, however there’s still a disparity which cannot be ignored.

The one Belmont home sale statistic which provides a glimmer of hope for a positive trend is the median price, which rose 1% year-over year. Having fewer homes to choose from can lead buyer’s to ultimately pay more to get the home they want. Realizing that the margin of error is great than the 1% increase, it's safe to say that Belmont home values essentially remained unchanged year over year in the month of July.

With the economic conditions fostering reservations in the mind of home buyers, we anticipate mid-Peninsula homes statistics to continue to flat-line for a considerable time to come.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

Home Prices Head Up in Belmont - Belmont Home Sales - June 2011

Belmont homes sales in June 2011 appear to be holding steady, while home values may be climbing.

We’ve said it before but it’s hard to compare June of 2010 to June 2011 since June of 2010 was the last month of home closings that qualified for the $8,000 tax stimulus. Looking at last year’s home sales for the month of May and June when the program was phasing out it’s easy to see that the stimulus had an effect on the number of homes selling.

This June Belmont had 15 home sales—the same as last month, but down considerably from last June’s 25.

The time it took to sell a home dropped this June from 46 says to 36 and while last year only 48% of the homes sold for less than the seller’s asking price, this June 60% sold for less but with the seller receiving 99.25% of the asking price compared to with 98.91% of their asking price in June of 2010.

The months of inventory—or the time it would take to sell all of the remaining homes in Belmont at the current rate of sales—dropped from 3.86 in June 2010 to 2.83 in this June—nationwide, less than 3 months typically indicates a seller’s market. In Belmont we tend to notice that a bullish seller’s market occurs when we fewer than 40 homes are on the market at a given time; Belmont currently has 60—last June the inventory level was 66.

Where are Belmont home values today?

That’s the million dollar question which is on the mind of many homebuyers; Will home values continue their five year slide or have we neared the bottom?

Belmont’s median home price fell from $944,694 last June to $876,525 in June 2011 which on paper looks like a 7.2% decline.

However, looking at the median size of homes which sold in the two periods, a different story emerges. In June of last year the median size home sold was 2,170 square feet in size. Compare that with this June when the median size home was only 1769 square feet. So while the median Belmont home price appears to have declined 7.2%, the square foot differential in homes is much greater. Effectively buyers bought homes 18% smaller home this June but only got a 7.8% price break over last year—losing purchasing power to the tune of 10.2%.

Another way to look at the numbers is the median size home sold for $449 per square foot in June of 2011. If we adjust for the 401 square feet difference between last June’s homes and this year’s it could explain part of the discrepancy and account for perhaps as much as $180,049—bringing the adjusted median price this June to $1,056,574, or 12% higher than last June.

We also looked at whether last year’s June stimulus program may have artificially skewed the median home price lower with qualifying homes—those under $800,000—accounting for a greater percentage of home sales as a change in the “mix” in the size/price of homes selling could artificially alter the median home price; In fact we found the opposite to be true. Last June 24% of the homes sold were under the qualifying $800,000 price threshold while this June 33% of the homes sold were under $800,000.

Any way you slice it if you delve deeper into the statistics it’s fairly apparent that conditions are improving. We expect over the next several years to see home value fluctuations due to seasonal buying and selling patterns as well as economic conditions including job growth, consumer confidence and even the media’s focus on negative reporting—but the overall trend should remain upward—three steps forward two steps back type of progress.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

San Carlos Home Sales Continue Spur Optimism

We culled everything from the San Mateo County Multiple Listing Service for San Carlos home sales in the past six months with a limiting parameter of a minimum price of $998,000 as we wanted to stay away from sales with stimulated financing. 

As is apparent from the spreadsheet there are quite a few homes which have sold in the last six months for over the asking price (44%) for on average $54,000 more than seller’s asking price with a high of $187,000 and a low of $2,000 and a median selling point of $46,000 over what the seller was asking.

Not surprisingly these homes were only on the market an average of 6.4 days with the seller receiving 104% of their asking price.

Homes which were apparently priced at what they were probably worth fared less impressively with the seller receiving their asking price in 18 days on average. These homes accounted for 19% of all the homes sold.

Those homes where the seller missed the sweet spot by pricing too high did even worse as would be expected. These homes were on the market an average of 48 days and sold for on average $37,000 less than the seller’s asking price. These sellers received only 97% of their asking price with the worst case being a home which sold for $145,000 under the asking price in 131 days and the best case a home which sold for only $3,000 less in 16 days. These homes accounted for 37.5% of all the sales.

It's fairly easy to see that homes which are priced well will sell in a shorter period of time and for more. This can only happen when there is sufficient demand (as there currently is in San Carlos) and the seller doesn’t take any offers until the home has been marketed for a sufficient period of time—typically one week-ten days. The difference is staggering when you see that homes which are slightly under what the market will bear sell for on average 105% of the seller’s asking price and homes which are overpriced sell for only 97%. That seven percent difference is more than the commissions most agents charge.

If we break down the sales by days on the market we see further evidence of homes selling fast and for more when they are priced aggressively.

Homes which sold in the first two weeks of market exposure accounted for 67% of all homes sold with the sellers receiving 103% ($32,000 more) of the seller’s asking price on average.

Those homes which sold anywhere from 15-21 days on the market accounted for less than 1% of all homes sold. These sellers received on average $14,000 less than their asking price (97%).

Homes which were sold after 21 days on the market accounted for about 27% of all homes sold with the seller’s receiving on average $39,000 less (97%) of their asking price.

Based on these statistics we can rather safely conclude that the best strategy to price a San Carlos home is to price it aggressively and obtain a sale in the first two weeks. This is backed by our empirical evidence of being in the trenches and seeing buyers vie for a home with fervor.

Ultimately, a home will sell for what the market will bear. We control the marketing, not the market. Our goal is to price a home so that the seller will receive the most money from the sale.

Throughout our years of successful transactions we have been focused on the three important steps to achieving this goal—Preparation, Pricing and Promotion—The Keys to a Successful Sale.^sm

 

The information contained in this article is educational and 
intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real 
estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific 
to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional 
familiar with your scenario. 

 

Belmont Home Sales for May 2011

Belmont home prices slipped back a bit in the month of May 2011 while sales continued to be less than impressive.

Home sales in Belmont were down considerably from May of 2010 and for good reason—home sales last May were buoyed by the last minute deadline for the $8,000 tax credit which lifted sales across the nation. Our sales analysis for May of 2010 addressed the temporary nature of the uptick in homes sales for the month of May 2010.

SALES

Last year in May there were 34 home sales in Belmont as compared to only 15 this year. That’s one less sale than last month and two less than in February. Looking at the big picture, over the last 13 years the average home sales in Belmont has been 25 for the month of May—of course many of the last 13 years were boon years as well.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price for a home in Belmont for May 2011 was $949,000, an increase over April of 14% and an increase over last May when the median home price was $848,500. We could stop right there and change our headline but looking a little closer we see that the mix of homes which sold in these periods varied dramatically.

Last month, and in May of last year, the median size homes which sold were smaller than homes selling in May of 2011. Part of the reason for so many smaller homes selling last May was the $800,000 purchase cap to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit. This rebate lured many first-time buyers into the market but had an incidental effect of lowering the median home price with many smaller homes selling.

The median size home that sold in Belmont in May of 2010 was 1,845 square feet and in May of 2011 it had increased to 2,157. The increase of 312 square feet represents a 17% increase in the size of homes selling in the two periods while the increase in median price represents only an 11.8%. At the going rate of $478 per square foot in 2010 that could account for $149,136 of price differential—the actual differential in the two periods was only $100,500. This could loosely be translated into a real decline in median home price of $ 48,636 or 5.1% year over year.

While the median home price may have slipped back a bit the average time it took to sell a home dropped from 25 days in May of 2010 to 17 in May 2011.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Four sellers in May of 2010 lowered their asking price by on average $64,750 in order to attract a buyer while this May only one seller lowered their asking price by $30,000. These fewer price reductions might be attributed to sellers (and agents) pricing their home more accurately to reflect the current market conditions.

PERCENT RECEIVED

May of 2011 found sellers netting more than last year during the same period. Seller’s received 101.3% of their asking price this year as compared to sellers netting only 99.8% last May.

A correlative effect of pricing one’s home right is that offers will usually come in closer to the asking price. This May five (33%) of the home sales were under the asking price for on average $22,000, four homes sold at the asking price and six (40%) sold for on average $40,000 more.

In May of 2010 15 homes (44%) sold for on average $26,000 less than what the seller was asking, three homes sold at the asking price and 16 (47%) sold for on average $22,000 more than asking.

The peninsula market appears to be picking up some steam, though the numbers have yet to reflect what we see occurring locally.

Homes which are priced right are often snapped up within days with multiple offers while sellers (and agents) who push the pricing envelope quickly lose market enthusiasm and are more often than not relegated to months of marketing, open houses, showings and multiple price reductions before finding a buyer.

We’ve also noted that many more people are contacting us for rentals than in the past several years. This increase in demand for rental housing has created a shortage in the supply and rental units are harder to come by while rental prices are skyrocketing. And when rents rise (and the number of units unavailable to meet the demand) people look at purchasing as an alternative. We suspect that the peninsula housing market is poised for a rebound sooner than the rest of the nation but don’t expect to hear about it in the news just yet.

Increased affordability in the housing sector with lower home values and historically low interest rates makes considering buying VS renting very attractive.

Investors of rental units are simply giddy at locking in historically low interest rates for 30 years and will reap handsome rewards when inflation returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Belmont Home Values on the Rise - April 2011 Home Sales Report

The sale of single family homes in Belmont increased this April to 16 over last April’s 10—a 60% increase in home sales. This is important to note since last year in April homebuyers enjoyed the $8,000 tax incentive program (and also because we went out on a limb and predicted this might happen). During the same time the average days it took to sell a home dropped from 76 days to 50.

•             Last April four homes took price reductions of on average $48,000 in order to attract a buyer. This April five sellers had to reduce their prices by $44,000 in order to sell their homes.

•             While last April three homes sold for on average $40,000 less than their asking price and took 75 days to do so, this year eight sellers received on average $34,000 less in 93 days.

•             Six of this April’s sixteen home sales sold for on average $25,000 more than asking price in only six days, as compared to last year when the same number of homes sold over asking in 12 days.

•             In both years two homes sold at the seller’s asking price within six to nine days.

The bigger news is the median Belmont home price in April of 2010 was $967,500—which bought you a four bedroom three bath home of 2,418 square feet. This year the median home sale price in April was only $835,000 and for that you could purchase a three bedroom two bath home of only 1,570 square feet.

What does all this mean?

It means that while the median price point for homes sold last year was higher, you could also get a lot more home for your money.

The relatively small inventory of homes selling in Belmont means the median home price—the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less—is very susceptible to swings created by either larger or smaller homes selling in a given month.

The difference in the size home one could buy in April of 2010 as compared to April of 2011 was 848 square feet larger at the median price point—that’s not an insignificant number. If one could buy a home 54% larger last year for only 16% more than this year it means home values actually went up year-over-year.

A way to better compare apples to apples and approximate the adjusted median home price is to multiply the 848 square feet by the median price per square foot which homes were selling for—$ 445.00 per square foot ($377,360) and add that to this year’s median home price of $835,000 to approximate a closer representation of the median price trend:

848 x $445 = $377,360 + $835,000 = $1,212,360 (Adjusted median home price).

While this approach is not perfect, despite the recent reported median home price decline in the Bay Area, either home values increased in Belmont year-over-year or you just get a lot less home for your money this year.

Is this a trend or anomaly? Stay tuned...

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Light at the end of the Tunnel?

Light at the end of the tunnel?


The Standard & Poor's/Experian consumer default composite index fell to 2.43% in March from 2.54% in February. All the major sectors, such as bank cards, auto loans, and first and second mortgages, reported declines. As for U.S. housing, sales of existing homes increased 3.7% in March following a significant decline of 8.9% February.

Belmont Housing Review - February 2011

Once again if we are lulled into believing the raw numbers Belmont’s median home price shot up 14.7% over last February and an unbelievable 23% since just last month—unbelievable being the operative word.

(click on the picture to see a larger image). * Yes. Those are Mardi Gras colors...

In fact the median home price in Belmont was $917,500 in February 2011 while last February it was $800,000 and just last month it was $745,000.

But being the spoiler I am I have to report that the size homes which sold last February were only 1640 square feet in size and this February they were 2,030—24% or 390 square feet larger.

We can play around with some fuzzy math and arrive at several conclusions which all point to the fact that year over year prices have actually declined.

A home which is 23% larger yet only costs me 14.7% more seems too good to be true. Part of the inequity has to do with the issue that land remains a constant, which makes any approximation of value just that. Looking at it from several different ways one can safely arrive at a price decline of around 8.3% year-over-year.

SALES

And that perhaps is why home sale in Belmont are up 20%--well, 12 sales this year compared to 10 last year is only two more sales but hey, we have to offer full disclosure right?

In February of 2010 four of those Belmont homes lowered their asking price by on average $28,760 but this February three sellers slashed their asking price by on average $62,000.

Six homes sold for on average $51,000 less than there asking price last year while only four did so this year—for the exact same amount.

Each year two of the homes sold right at the seller’s asking price while last year two sold for more—on average $53,000 and this year six sold for on average $15,000 more.

DOM

The time it took to sell your home dropped dramatically over last year. Several factors are in play here. First there were more homes to choose from this year which helped buyers come to a decision more quickly. Both years there were many hangover listings from the previous December which carried with them the dreaded DOM stigma but this year we sold a few more of them than last year.

% Received.

The amount the seller received of their asking price 98.7% remained unchanged from last year but was up 1.4% over last month.

On an insider note, 13 of the 19 homes pending sale in Belmont right now are scheduled to close this month and we personally know that of the 19, several will be closing well over the asking price thanks to multiple offers. Yes, the word buyers hate to hear has raised its ugly head again due to the low inventory of homes to buy.

If you are considering selling your Belmont home, right now’s a pretty good time according to the activity we’ve seen.

 

Can San Mateo Survive a Tidal Wave?

San Mateo County Market Snapshot--Are We Treading Water?   

Those of you who follow our market updates know we put our hometown, Belmont, under a market microscope every month to get a glimpse as to where the market appears to be headed.

Of course that really is living in a Petri dish when it comes to the real estate market as a whole.

Real estate is very local—what goes on in even one part of a city could be entirely different from another. That said eventually positive market trends trickle down and negative ones up.

As evidence of this phenomenon one can go back and look at our charts from 2007 when Palo Alto was still doing famously yet Daly City may as well have slid into the ocean (many homeowners probably wish it had).

 

Today we visit the numbers—year over year—for San Mateo County as a whole, hoping to see some trends that will give us an inkling as to where consumer sentiment is, as reflected in sales, median price, etc.

SALES

New Listings	Current Inventory	Closed Sales	Average DOM	Average Sales Price	Median Sales Price	% LP Rec'd	Total $ Vol
2011   545	1400	233	74	786,509	587,500	96.48	182,470,145
2010   484	1156	229	82	840,235	650,000	97.17	192,413,866
2009   530	1452	163	74	683,900	553,750	97.20	110,791,806

It’s easy to see that the ripples of consumer uncertainty could easily capsize the boat of recovery if the tides of low interest rates come in too fast.

Sales are certainly better than the low of 2009 and remain steady as they did in our Belmont example. But as in the Belmont report the median price showed a decline in home values since last January. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a potential home buyer and it doesn’t mean values are still dropping, just that they did drop year over year.

Interest rates are going up, and have done so rapidly in the last few months—around ¾ of a point. That hurts the ability for people to qualify for a home and with less demand there’s a potential for prices to decrease further.

But as we cautioned ourselves, we are comparing 2010--a year of government sponsored tax rebates to 2011 without. Let's see if our minnow of a recovery can weather the storm without a life raft.

Thanks for checking back in with us. 

*Data San Mateo County MLS.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

 

Belmont Home Prices Decline Further

We’re only one month into 2011 and already things are interesting.

Belmont home sales in January 2011 remained brisk. There were twelve homes which closed escrow in January, one more than last year but eight more than in 2009.

It appears a small trend has developed indicating January 2009, as suspected, was the low point for real estate.

But we aren’t out of the woods yet. Depending on who’s talking to you—a glass half full or half empty person—we’re either headed into a slow recovery or its lull in the action before a double dip. Never mind the glass is completely empty person—they’ll always be waiting for the “right time” to buy a home yet never do.

The definition of a double dip is when things get worse than they were at the trough of a business cycle. Considering how bad things were at one point in this last cycle, we find that implausible—that the state of affairs could get worse but hey, we don’t read tea leaves either. Of course that’s not to say things can't remain in a state of unsteadiness for years to come.

Within this recovery there will undoubtedly be micro swings in prices and sales which are highly dependent on consumer confidence, and of course interest rates. The media will predictably pounce on these blips on the radar screen—stay tuned.

Click on the chart to see a full-sized version. And yes, those are Green Bay colors...

NEW LISTINGS

The number of new listings for Belmont in January 2011 stood at 24—six more than in 2010. The inventory levels for these same periods were 38 for 2011 and 35 for 2010.  The more interesting stat is the months of inventory—how long it would take to sell all of the homes at the current pace and inventory levels—a ratio if you will.

In January of 2009 it stood at over 10 months, and the last two January’s have seen that fall to just around 3 months. On a national level the country would be thrilled to see those numbers—the nation is hovering around the 11 month levels—six months defines a stable market.

Why then did prices still fall? Simple. Consumer confidence remains weak.

Sales are on the rise because sellers have become realistic about their home’s value, not because demand has increased. The months of inventory has remained low because many sellers aren't selling their homes. In Belmont, when inventory levels reach more than 50 homes for sale we experience a buyers’ market. Yet with inventory levels currently at 38 homes for sale, why then is it not a seller’s market?

Well the short answer is it is and it isn’t. Seller’s are managing to create a faux seller’s market by listing homes low and creating a bidding war, and keeping inventory levels low (no it’s not a conspiracy it’s just that a lot of sellers either can’t sell or won’t until prices go back up). The truth is buyers can be pickier in some instances; but with inventory levels this low it means it may take a long time to find the home they want.

Did Sellers get their Asking Price?

In January 2011 five of the 12 sellers lowered their asking price by on average $43,000 in order to attract a buyer. In 2010 that number was four sellers for an average of $65,000. Here’s the kicker—in 2010 all 11 homes sold for under the seller’s asking price; for on average $50,000 less, while in 2011 only seven homes sold for less than asking and only $30K (we threw out the one that was ridiculously off base).

So prices are up right? Nope. Sellers are just more sensible.

The median price for a Belmont home in 2011 was $745,000—down from $850,000 in 2010 and the size homes selling in 2011 were a smaller which compounds the difference.

The median size home sold in 2011 was 106 square feet larger than in 2010. This means that even if the median price was unchanged, the size home you could buy for the same money increased 6%. Now let’s factor in the $50,000 median price decline which adds another 5.8% drop in value and you’re looking at almost 12% price decline year over year.

If you are a buyer you need to know that any potential savings you might reap by waiting to see if values decline further could easily be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. Now’s not a bad time to consider getting off the fence...

 

* Data extracted from the San Mateo County MLS

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

Sales of Existing Homes Double in Belmont for December 2010.

For Belmont homeowners there appears to be some stability creeping into the market. Home sales were brisk this December—double what they were in 2009. Those of you who may remember the home buyer tax credit was due to end in November last year which pulled a lot of buyers from December sales into November—all across the country. Not so much in Belmont since the qualifying purchase price had to be less than $800,000. Nevertheless we went back to compare previous December sales and they normally fall in the area of 12 for the month of December. One has to go back to 2005 when the housing market was red hot to see sales figures this high.

These first two graphs illustrate the housing activity in Belmont for the Month of December 2010 and the year end averages for the entire year.

 

 

 

If we run we run down the usual list of market indicators, across the board there are some positive signs for homeowners.

*Highlighted homes were sold by Drew & Christine Morgan. Click on the graph for a full-sized image.

DOM

The time it took for a seller in Belmont to get a contract on their home was at 58, up only slightly from last year’s 50 and is pretty well mitigated with the doubling of sales.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Belmont sellers received 98.1% of their asking price in December 2010 as compared to 97.22 in December of 2009.

Half of the homes in December 2010 underwent price reductions for on average $58,000 before they sold. Last year 42% of sellers reduced their price by on average $69,000.

Of the 24 sales this last December two sold at the seller’s asking price, 16 sold for less than asking (by on average ($33,488), and six homes sold over the seller’s asking price by on average $17,183.

Homes which sold over asking did so on average in 26 days while homes which sold for less took more than 65 days to sell.*

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

If you’ve followed this blog for any length of time you’ve heard us talk about how deceiving the median price can be in any small sample size. Once again the median home price is a bit misleading as it has the median home price in Belmont in December of 2010 at $912,500. That’s $102,750 (12.7%) more than last year’s $809,750.

So the answer lies somewhere in the numbers but ferreting out a more accurate sense of value is difficult. The size homes which sold in 2009 were on average 277 square feet smaller than the homes which sold in December of 2010, which accounts for most of the perceived median price increase. It just so happens that the size home you could get this year was also around 13% larger than last year—effectively whipping out any gain.

Using the year-end totals helps even out some of the distortion inherent in median price figures as the graph above demonstrates. If you take an average of each month’s median home price in Belmont for 2009, the average median home price was $847,604 and for 2010 it was $908,159—an increase of 7.1%. The average size of the home which sold in the two periods also increased from 1730 in 2009 to 2000 in 2020, a 15.6% increase. So was there any home appreciation in Belmont in 2010? Probably not. It appeared that in the first quarter of 2010 homes might increase in value but as quarters two and three came to a close (immediately following the conclusion of the homebuyer incentive programs) it was clear that would not be the case. The fourth quarter managed to salvage some of the losses in the two previous quarters as you shall probably hear soon n the media.

If you are considering selling your home this year be sure and contact us for a valuation of your home. We are experts in selling peninsula properties and our record of selling every home we list for sale is unparalleled in our industry.

 Note: We throw out homes we know were re-listed or underwent huge price reductions only to sell for slightly higher than their greatly reduced price.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

Belmont Home Sales - November 2010

We love the holidays as much as anyone, but a little less red in the chart would be nice too.

Belmont home sales for November of 2010 continued the trend of the last two quarters with fewer sales and declining home values as compared to the same period in 2009. 

(Click on the chart to see a full-sized image)

Clearly consumer confidence is woefully short of normal. While consumer confidence does not in and of itself control the direction of the economy it does reflect consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is well represented by consumer spending—when consumers are comfortable with their view of the future they tend to spend more. Considering that some estimate consumer spending to represent 2/3rds of our nation’s domestic product (GDP) suffice to say that consumer confidence is necessary for a sustained recovery. For consumer confidence to rebound there needs to be more jobs and of course the feeling that the job one has won’t go away soon either. On a positive note the consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in November from a revised 49.9 in October. It was the highest level in five months. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

How does this affect the housing market? The tenuous job market is taking its toll on nervous home buyers. Buyers are still purchasing homes but fewer can qualify for a loan and when they do it’s usually for less home than before. Those who are willing to purchase a home seem to want only exceptional deals—building into their offer price a buffer against further price declines.

SALES

Home sales in Belmont remained fairly strong considering the aporetic feelings among buyers.

This November we saw 16 homes trade hands in Belmont as compared to 22 in 2009.

Of the 16 sales, six sold for on average $21,350 more than the seller’s asking price in 17 days, one sold at the asking price, and nine sold for on average $16,500 less and took 82 days to sell.

Six sellers also reduced the price they were originally asking  for their home by on average by $149,342, while last year there were only three homes which had price reductions during the same period and for on average only $13,590.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price (on paper) went up 5.4% to $843,475 from November 2009 when it was $800,000. However, in 2009 the median size home which sold was only 1,558 square feet as compared to this November when the median size home sold was 1,920 square feet—a difference of 352 square feet. At the median price per square foot that homes sold for during November, $466 and the difference in the size home sold, 352 sq. ft. one could make an argument that if all things were equal (the same size home selling in the two periods) the adjusted price for 2009 would be closer to $964,032 ((352 Sq. Ft. x $466 per sq. ft. = $164,032) + $800,000) =$964,032. This allows us to estimate that home values dropped around 12.5% year over year in the month of November. How much the median price changed for the year as a whole is yet to be determined. Remember, just because homes dropped 12.5% in the month of November, earlier increases in the year can mean at year's end the median price could be up for down from the previous year.

It’s also interesting to note that although the median size home which sold in November of 2010 was much larger, only one home sold over the one million dollar mark as compared to three in 2009.

 

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

Not surprisingly it took more time to sell a home this year than last--on average 62 days—up dramatically from 38.5 days in November of 2009. One also must be cognizant that last November the first-time buyer tax credit was in effect which skewed the numbers in favor of more sales, selling faster, and for more.

When home values are dropping, the time it takes to sell a home typically increases as sellers often price their home based on recent past sales. But when home values are falling, recent sales were worth more. Eventually most sellers get the idea that they must get ahead of the pricing curve and lower their home more than the market suggests it might be worth. This has an ancillary effect of lowering home values rapidly and perhaps more than they would otherwise drop.

Noting the huge difference in not only the number of homes which had price reductions, but the steep adjustments that were made, illustrates the difficulty in pricing a home in a declining market and underscores the importance of introducing your home to the market at the right price.

Summary

There’s always some danger in looking at a small market sample such as Belmont with only 16 sales in a given month. Seasonal factors play heavily in the statistics which is why we choose to compare each month we examine to the same month a year before. However, it’s important to note that other factors can effect comparing these two periods. For example, last November the first-time buyer tax credit was expiring, causing many buyers to rush to the bargaining table. This increased competition for homes undoubtedly buoying the prices while increasing sales.

Our leading indicators of future market conditions indicate a gradual recovery in the housing sector.

• The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of manufacturing activity fell slightly to 56.6 in November after reaching 56.9 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 16th straight month of expansion.
• Total construction spending rose 0.7% to $802.3 billion in October, following a revised 0.7% increase in September. Economists had anticipated a drop of 0.4% in October.
• The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 10.4% in October after a 1.8% decrease in September.
• The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 55 in November from 54.3 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 11th straight month of expansion.

On a local level our professional staging company has reported to us that their orders for staged homes are booking up fast for January, indicating that Sellers are interested in getting a jump on the spring market.

If you are considering selling your home next year you may want to consider doing it sooner rather than later before inventory rises to levels which make price reductions necessary to attract Buyers.

If you are considering selling your current home and/or purchasing a new one be sure and contact us for your real estate needs.

Now for the inevitable disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

 

 

 

Belmont Home Sales - October 2010 Where's the Beef?

With the election behind us and the stock market rallying to the excitement and anticipation of more economic stimulus and legislative gridlock, Belmont’s housing market continues to show signs of what could be viewed as stagnation at its best, or a double dip at its worst.

This October, housing sales for Belmont revealed a slower market and softening prices compared to October 2009.

  
 

(Click the picture for a larger image).

SALES

Thirteen home sales—one shy of last year’s 14, would not normally give great cause for consternation—especially since the sample size in Belmont is so small.  However across the board indicators are eluding to a reluctance on the part of buyers to commit to purchasing a home.

 In light of comments like that of John Paulsen who made a fortune betting on the sub-prime market collapse proclaiming “this is the best time to buy a home in fifty years, exclaiming that, "If you don't own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home” clearly job security is the number one reason buyers are waiting before taking on any new debt.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The October median home price in Belmont was $864,200 and appears to have dropped only slightly from October 2009 when it was $865,000. Once again though larger homes sold this October. The median size home sold was 2010 square feet as compared to last year when the median size home sold was only 1760 square feet. Put another way, this year you could buy a home 250 square feet larger (14%) for the essentially the same price as last year.

DOM

The average time it took to sell a home in Belmont this October also went up from 38 days last year to 46 this October.

% RECEIVED

Seller’s also enjoyed getting 99.6% of their asking price last year while this October dropped to 98%.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Six of the 13 sales this year had lowered their price on average $92,000 to attract a buyer while last year only three sellers reduced their asking price for on average $40,000.

This October while three homes sold for on average $29,000 more than their asking, last October six homes sold over asking for on average $23,000.

The last thing any seller wants is to get less than their asking price and this year more sellers were disappointed as nine homes sold for on average $34,000 less compared to last October when only seven homes sold for on average $30,000 less than their asking price.

In October of both years just one home sold at the seller’s asking price.

COMMENTARY

This fourth quarter slowdown in real estate is not all that unexpected. It’s a fairly mild hiccup at this point which may be attributed in part to election jitters but certainly it’s exacerbated by our own government when they announce they are re-visiting the home mortgage deduction. Of course every year some committee wants to reexamine if they could do away with it to be replaced by a flat t tax, but to do so in a year when the government is spending billions of dollars trying to stimulate the economy, and particularly the housing sector, one wonders why they wouldn’t just table any further debates on the home mortgage deduction until after they economy was on track.

Belmont Housing Price Report - September 2010

September means fall has arrived and nowhere did we see more falling than in the number of home sales in Belmont for this time of year.

 

(click here for a full-sized image).

Here are the details:

MEDIAN PRICE:

Once again we had an increase in the median price over last September.  The median price in Belmont for September 2010 was $865,000—an increase of 8% over last September’s $795,000. And this was once again mitigated (or negated) by the size homes which sold in the two periods.

This September the size home sold in Belmont was 1,900 Square feet compared to last year when it was only 1,600. The 300 square foot differential accounts for approximately $144,000 in price variance if you multiply it based on the $480 per square foot that homes sold for over the two periods. Effectively the size home which sold was 18.75% larger but only garnered an 8% higher price tag.

Does this mean that Belmont’s median price is still dropping? Well it certainly means it has dropped in the past two months—but price drops this time of year tend to be seasonal.

NUMBER OF SALES:

Sales of homes in Belmont last month were down by 33% from a year ago. And a year ago sale were down from normal levels. Now 33% wouldn’t mean a lot if we had only three sales a month but we had 18 last September and only 12 this year.

This is no doubt a hangover from the housing stimulus bill that ran out earlier this year and attracted many of the buyers to move earlier in the year.

PRICE STABILIZATION:

It could be temporary, but of the homes which sold, three sold for on average $10,000 over asking (even though one only sold for a dollar more), two sold for the seller’s asking price and seven homes sold for less—by on average $66,000. Compared to last year when no homes sold for more than the seller’s asking price, eight homes sold under and 10 sold at the asking price, this is relatively good news.

DOM:

The time it took to sell the homes increased over last year—up from 45 days to 73.

INVENTORY:

With 64 homes available for sale in Belmont right now prices are sure to remain flat unless buyers begin to feel more comfortable with their job stability, or in some cases, the prospect of a job at all.

PERCENT RECEIVED:

Once again the numbers are down from last September. A year ago the seller could happily receive on average 98% of their asking price and this year that number dropped to 96.65%.

September is typically a month that begins the fall push for housing before buyers go into their winter hibernation mode with brisk sales and sellers typically getting more for their home than during the summer months. This was clearly not the case this September so it will be interesting to see how the October numbers come in.

There are a lot of buyers still sitting on the fence. It’s our opinion that at the end of the year Belmont’s median price will be higher than in 2009 and we expect that to continue at a tepid pace through 2011.

If you are a buyer thinking of making a move, statistically the winter is the best time to snag a deal. Call us is you’d like to get started early!

 

 

Belmont Home Values - Report for July 2010

 
Belmont homes sales in July are just the thing headlines are made of.

Last month the median home price in Belmont was $ 975,000 and July it dropped 9% to $885,000. That doesn’t bode well for the positive home sales headlines, but rest assured the median size home that sold last month was also 18% larger. Comparing July sales this year to that of last July, in 2009 the median home price dropped 4.4%, but once again the size home which sold last July were 16% larger. What good does it do to report the median price when it varies from month to month so dramatically? Adjusting for the size home which sold can give us an indication of whether values are going up or down based on examining the price as adjusted for the size home selling. Clearly the values have gone up, even though the median price appears to have fallen.

Sales

The number of homes which sold did disappoint us. This July saw only 20 homes close escrow as opposed to 32 in June and 31 last July. Since the “sales” ,or homes which closed escrow in July were no doubt actually “sold” in June, we also looked at the number of pending sales in July—homes which will close escrow in August. That stood at only 15 which is right in line with the last two years’ performance.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home this July was 27 days, down from 46 in June and 34 last July. That’s a good number to track to see where the momentum may be headed.

Percent Received

Sellers will be happy to note that on average they received $35,000 over their asking price with the average seller getting over 100%. Only four of the homes lowered their asking price—with one caveat these numbers are slightly skewed because one home received an offer $100,000 over their asking price. Nine sellers still accepted an offer less than asking—on average $23,000 less, with six sellers receiving what they were asking.

Inventory

Inventory levels remain high for this time of year. The number of available homes for sale is at 71; up from June’s 66 and last July’s 57. More supply would typically put downward pressure on prices, and 71 homes for sale his higher than normal. However, the increase is still well within healthy standards. The months of inventory—the time it would talk to deplete the inventory of homes for sale at the current rate they are selling—is at 3.7, a far cry from the national rate of nine months. This was helped by fewer home being listed for sale in July—only 27.

We attribute the increased inventory to several factors. Some sellers may need to sell their home and they’ve waited as long as they can, and/or sellers want to move and take advantage of lower interest rates on a move-up or retirement home. In any case more sellers are selling and some buyers are buying.

If you are thinking of selling your home this year the window of opportunity is upon us. The second wave buying season gets into full swing just after Labor Day. That gives us just enough time to get your home ready to show at its best. Give us a call for an interview if you are in the mood for a move.

 

Belmont - Home sales for June 2010 in 94002

SALES

Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.

(click on the graphic for a full size picture)

Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30^th 2010.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.

INVENTORY

The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.

With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.

Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

Belmont Home Sales - April 2010

Top of FormFirst we'd like to thank the many readers who have signed up on our web page for email newsletters which cut down dramatically on our costs and has helped us tread lighter on the environment.

There are many positive indicators in Belmont’s housing market from just a year ago. This data is from the MLS from April 2010, when the government tax rebate was still being offered. That said, only two of the 14 sales in April could have potentially qualified for the rebate since it was capped at a sale price of $800,000.

Below, we’ve added a new feature--a short summary of the homes which sold. We think this may help you gleam more information than just the address.

 

(click on the window for a full size chart)

Wrap-Up Belmont Housing Market Review April 2010

Sales

Sales year over year for the month of April were almost unchanged at 14 for this year as compare to 13 last April.

Median Price

The median price jumped from $810,000 last April to $967,500 (19%) but the size home which sold in the two periods was also exactly 19% larger which effectively wipes out any real gain—but it looks good in the media.

Days on the Market

The time it took to sell a home dropped from 64 last year to only 44 this year.

Percent Received

Of course when homes sell faster that usually means the market is a bit stronger and we’d expect to see that this April 4 homes sold over asking, 1 at asking and 8 under asking as opposed to last year when none sold over, 4 sold right at asking and 9 sold for less—on average receiving 96.3% of their asking price last year compared to 99% this year.

Summary

It will be interesting to see what impact the end of the tax credit may have on real estate. We’ve already pointed out that it really shouldn’t impact Belmont that much however, if the media gets wind of sales dropping off in the coming months, you may see a pull-back on the part of buyers. The frenzied pace of the last few months caught on like a bad virus leading many to start bidding homes right back up again playing sort of a game of “musical chairs” to see who could get a home before the money ran out. All of which may slow back down—we’ll see…

706 ALAMEDA DE LAS PULGAS, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $445,000 Beds: 2 beds Baths: 3|0 baths DOM: 41   MLS: 81011114  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 2, 3|0 SqFt: 1,880 Yr Built / Age: 1927 / 83 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 13,410 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $399,900 Sale Price: $445,000 Sale Date: 03/22/2010 COE Date: 04/23/2010 OffMktDate: Opportunity abounds with this private, tree-laden property nestled in the Belmont hills. Main house is 2 bed, 2 bath with a lower-level studio. One-of-a-kind secluded retreat, minutes from everything! Home needs some TLC but the value is in the land. 1950 ALDEN ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $670,000 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 1|0 baths DOM: 5   MLS: 81010737  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 3, 1|0 SqFt: 1,390 Yr Built / Age: 1947 / 63 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,840 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $649,500 Sale Price: $670,000 Sale Date: 03/13/2010 COE Date: 04/09/2010 OffMktDate: 04/10/2010 Lots of elbow grease and imagination required here. Bonus room down stairs may be non-conforming due to ceiling height. Large rear yard and patio area. Freshly painted inside and out. Great area and schools. Trustee Sale offered in "AS-IS" condition only. 1821 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $800,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 77   MLS: 81003302  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 2|1 SqFt: 2,210 Yr Built / Age: 1974 / 36 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,500 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $835,000 Sale Price: $800,000 Sale Date: 04/10/2010 COE Date: 04/30/2010 OffMktDate: HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!!Fabulous Bay views from this Belmont Hills home. Newly remodeled kitchen with granite counters & stainless appliances. Breakfast bar in kitchen, family room with fireplace, dining room & formal living room. Great views from master bedroom as well. Lots of storage, closets & storage shed outside. Lots of space for this price! Beautiful area, come see! Not a short sale!!!! 1815 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $825,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 4|0 baths DOM: 95   MLS: 80956110  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 5, 4|0 SqFt: 2,443 Yr Built / Age: 1964 / 46 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,500 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $825,000 Sale Price: $825,000 Sale Date: 03/09/2010 COE Date: 04/16/2010 OffMktDate: BAY VIEW!! Cozy and roomy tri-level home. Perfect set-up for in-law or au pair. Updated country kitchen and bathrooms. Huge closets. Laundry room. Spaces for theatre, pool table, game room, extended family. Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** 1825 OAK KNOLL DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $856,850 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 2|0 baths DOM: 18   MLS: 81013424  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 3, 2|0 SqFt: 1,477 Yr Built / Age: 1950 / 60 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 8,593 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $879,000 Sale Price: $856,850 Sale Date: 04/07/2010 COE Date: 04/20/2010 OffMktDate: 04/21/2010 A private and peaceful retreat. Adorable updated home. Master suite has bathroom with lots of natural light and a jetted tub. Living room/dining room combo includes custom stone-faced fireplace. Large back yard is decked for entertaining small and large groups. Access to yard from both kitchen and master bedroom. Vegetable garden. Detached 2-car garage plus additional workshop/storage area. 1930 BAYVIEW AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $859,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 51   MLS: 81007777  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 2|1 SqFt: 1,960 Yr Built / Age: 1962 / 48 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 4,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $899,000 Sale Price: $859,000 Sale Date: 04/11/2010 COE Date: 04/21/2010 OffMktDate: Almost 2000 Sq. Ft. in great Belmont location. Warm & inviting Family Home with lots of room to grow. Hardwood Floors, Remodeled Master Bathroom. Separate Family Room, Living-Dining Room Combo, Large 2 Car Garage. Private Patio with Mature Landscaping. Easy Commute. Great School District & Quiet Location. Flat Level Back Yard. 4th Bedroom can be office/Bonus room. Fresh paint! New Carpet! 1935 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $960,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 19   MLS: 81010508  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 2|1 SqFt: 2,580 Yr Built / Age: 1980 / 30 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,242 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $998,000 Sale Price: $960,000 Sale Date: 03/24/2010 COE Date: 04/27/2010 OffMktDate: Sophisticated Tri-Level Contemporary in the Belmont Hills. Lovely Canyon views from many rooms. Soaring ceilings. Custom stained glass window. Arched walls. Hardwood floors and a fireplace. Huge master bath with Jacuzzi. Remodeled hallway & 1/2 bath. Wonderful secluded back deck for great entertaining. Move-in condition. This is your own private retreat. Don't miss your chance. 1919 ARBOR AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $975,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths DOM: 8   MLS: 81011925  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 3|0 SqFt: 2,000 Yr Built / Age: 1955 / 55 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 6,750 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $949,950 Sale Price: $975,000 Sale Date: 03/20/2010 COE Date: 04/21/2010 OffMktDate: CHARMING 2 STORY HOME W/ WONDERFUL VIEWS OF THE HILLS-HW FLRS-GRANITE KIT NEW 2003-DUAL PANE WINDOWS-NEW ELECTRICAL, NEW DOORS, REMODELED MASTER BATH-FP IN LR-FP IN FR-SECLUDED FRONT SLATE ENTRY-2 LARGE STORAGE RMS DOWNSTAIRS-DECK & FLAT LAWN ARE IN BACKYD-ROOF NEW 2003-MBR ON MAIN FLR-BREAKFAST BAR IN KIT-WALK TO SHOPS,CAFES, SCHOOLS & PARKS Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** 2815 MONTE CRESTA DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,198,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 2   MLS: 81010747  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 2|1 SqFt: 2,690 Yr Built / Age: 1978 / 32 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 8,500 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,198,000 Sale Price: $1,198,000 Sale Date: 03/10/2010 COE Date: 04/23/2010 OffMktDate: Exquisite Resort-like Belmont Hills Haskins Estates on cul-de-sac setting. Huge Lot! Just remodeled, New Everything: Bamboo hardwood floors throughout, dual pane Windows, Roof, kitchen cabinets, granite counter-tops, stainless steel appliances, bathrooms, pool plastering and tile, pool equipment, landscaping, concrete driveway. Wood-beamed vaulted ceilings. Wood burning fireplace. A true MUST SEE! 2736 WALTHAM CROSS ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,200,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 2|1 baths DOM: 11   MLS: 81006597  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 5, 2|1 SqFt: 2,550 Yr Built / Age: 1968 / 42 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 10,449 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,199,900 Sale Price: $1,200,000 Sale Date: 02/23/2010 COE Date: 04/13/2010 OffMktDate: Premier family neighborhood in beautiful Belmont. This spacious 5 bedroom 2-1/2 bath home features a fireplace in the Living Room & Family Room. Formal Dining Room has large window overlooking fantastic backyard with mature landscaping, sprinkler system and attractive deck. Filtered views of hillsides. This home is perfect for childhood dreams and parent comforts. Extra loft storage in garage. 640 SOUTH RD, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,237,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths DOM: 243   MLS: 80934224  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 3|0 SqFt: 2,780 Yr Built / Age: 1953 / 57 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 10,800 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,299,000 Sale Price: $1,237,000 Sale Date: 03/16/2010 COE Date: 04/06/2010 OffMktDate: 4BR/3BA HOME WITH PARTIAL BAY VIEWS, MANY UPGRADES, SEPARATE DINING & FAMILY ROOMS, SOLAR HEATED POOL, CABANA, 3 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE. 2941 MONTE CRESTA DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,250,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 3|1 baths DOM: 22   MLS: 81009245  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 5, 3|1 SqFt: 3,300 Yr Built / Age: 1970 / 40 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 5,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,298,000 Sale Price: $1,250,000 Sale Date: 03/21/2010 COE Date: 04/23/2010 OffMktDate: Exquisite Bay & City View-Home! Newly Remodeled in 2002. Gourmet Kitchen, High Ceilings, Hardwood Flooring, Tile Entry, Fireplaces, Large Master with fireplace, Large decks and more. Easy to show! Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** 2016 MEZES AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,325,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 4|0 baths DOM: 10   MLS: 81013221  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 5, 4|0 SqFt: 2,393 Yr Built / Age: 1926 / 84 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 8,050 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,388,000 Sale Price: $1,325,000 Sale Date: 03/29/2010 COE Date: 04/12/2010 OffMktDate: Originally built in 1926,this charming hm is situated on a lrg.lot in a park-like setting.Gorgeous tree-lined character str. Stunning 2nd stry addition added in'08(396 sf).Richly appointed baths,sizeable mst.ste w/jetted tub & lrg.shwr+wlk-in closet.2nd suit up.Kit.w/caesarstone counters,Viking gas stove,dbl.ovens,farmhouse sink,lrg.banquette.Fam.rm w/built-ins & french doors to rear park-likyard. 2546 SOMERSET DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,350,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths DOM: 10   MLS: 81013225  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Beds, Baths: 4, 3|0 SqFt: 2,500 Yr Built / Age: 1976 / 34 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,480 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,379,000 Sale Price: $1,350,000 Sale Date: 03/29/2010 COE Date: 04/26/2010 OffMktDate: Beautiful Hallmark home situated on a corner lot with tiled courtyard entry. Main level: formal entry,spacious living room w/fireplace and vaulted ceilings,Seperate dining room, kitchen overlooking the back yard,breakfast nook, Seperate family room with a fireplace, a full bath, three car garage, one converted into an exercise room.Upper level consists of a large master suite & 3 bedroos & 1 bath. Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

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Belmont Homes Sales Price Report for March 2010

Belmont had an interesting month this March.

The big news—which shouldn’t be news at all—is that the median price of homes in Belmont shot up 24% from $800,000 last month to $994,750 in March. Alas the size home also shot up 43% which more than negates any increase in the real median price of homes.

 

(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image) 

That said, other factors are showing indication of a more robust sellers market than in previous months.

Not to be overlooked is the home on Bayview which listed for $688,000 and sold for $914,500—a whopping 133% of the asking price. Of course the home had many multiple offers and many which bid far above the original asking price—apparently grossly underpriced. 

That’s only $390/square foot with the average Belmont home selling at $417. If this home had sold at what the agent had listed it fo,r it would have sold for $294/square foot a ridiculously low amount.

  
DOM

The time it took to sell a home was down a little bit form 81 days in February to 76 in March.

SALES

The exact same (ten) number of homes sold in March which was down from 13 a year ago. That’s a bit of a surprise since the market should be getting better. Our take on this is that in January and February of 2009 sales were so low—a combined ten for the two months—that in March of 2009 there were was a slight pent-up demand caused by the slow start to the year, increasing March’s sales figures.

Four homes sold under asking again and on average each took around a $50,000 price reduction. Three of those had to accept an even lower price of on average $40,000 more from where they had already lowered the price.

PERSPECTIVE

Watch for rate hikes to initially spur home sales as buyers scramble like musical chairs to get into a home before the rates start to climb. The Fed has halted its purchasing of mortgage backed notes which means it up to the public appetite for these investments to set the pace and the rates. If rates climb too much too fast, watch for homes sales to drop off and values to continue to dip.

 

 

Super Bowl XLIV brings you Belmont Home Sale Stats for January 2010

Before the Super Bowl XLIV gets started we thought we’d take a look at what happened in Belmont in January 2010.

We’re including two spreadsheets—one for this last January and to help put in perspective, the one from last January.

Most statistics across the country point to January of 2009 as the low point for the real estate market. But what are they saying? The lowest point for sales, median price or what?

Many pundits are saying that home values hit bottom in January of 2009 and in fact in many of the hardest hit areas like Phoenix that may well hold to be true. But for areas that initially fared better, indications are that the price erosion is continuing.

January 2010

January 2009

(Clicking on either chart will deliver a larger picture.) 

Looking at these two data samples, it’s easy to see that sales in Belmont are indeed up—way up. January of 2009 was simply dismal with only four sales and reflected that overall uncertainty of the future as buyers chose to sit on the sidelines and wait to see how much more prices will tumble.

SALES

This January’s sales reflect more buyers entering the market and buying homes. In January of 2009 there were 31% more listings available yet sales increased this year by 175%!

What accounted for the huge increase in homes sales? Part of it appears to be the resignation by sellers that they must take less for their homes than they had hoped for a year earlier. Note that all but five homes which sold this January not only had a price reduction but on average all received only 94% of their already reduced price.

MEDIAN PRICE

Most sellers had to lower their initial asking price by $50,000 and then accepted offers another $50,000 less than that. On a median home price of $850,000 that represents a huge disparity between what sellers (or their agents) think their home is worth, and what buyers are willing to pay.

Sales were up indeed but at deeply discounted prices. The Median home price in Belmont was $850, 000 which is about 4.7% less than January of last year. But not only can you get a home for 4.7% less than last January the home you get will be 6% larger. Another way to look at it of course is that prices have really dropped closer to 11% year-over-year.

DOM

Have the price reductions and lower asking prices helped sell homes faster? Just the opposite turns out to be true. The days it takes a seller to seller their home has almost tripled from 42 to 125.

Enjoy the game!

 Data provided from the Mulitple LIsting Service.

The information contained in this blog is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal, real estate or tax advice, nor does it substitute for profesional advice.

Belmont - Market Report for December 2009

It’s official. Belmont’s median home price dropped 9.4% last year from $920,000 in 2009 to $833,827 in 2009.

(click on the graph to enlarge)

There’s not much good news in the way of these numbers which would hint that the market is improving anytime soon with the exception of the “months of inventory” (*see below).

There seems to be a pervasive attitude within the real estate community to spin statistics any way possible to portray a happy healthy market but in reality real estate is experiencing some of the most volatile years in our nation’s history. And things are not stabilizing at any appreciable rate; in fact, many indicators point to just the opposite. That doesn’t mean you should no longer consider real estate a viable investment. It just means that you need to go in with eyes wide open. The recent market corrections (and even over corrections as in the case of many areas) has opened up some opportunities which may not be seen again for years.

The government is spending millions of dollars to keep interest rates low and offering tax incentives to spur homeownership. These conditions are temporary and indeed the end of special incentives may mean things get worse before they get significantly better.

Looking at the year-end numbers for Belmont, CA we see several statistics which put in perspective the tumultuous year real estate had in 2009.

The time it takes to sell a home in Belmont increased this year from 39 days in 2008 to 56 in 2009.

The amount a seller received of their asking price dropped from 98% in 2008 to 97% in 2009.

The median sale price dropped 9.4% in 2009.

*Month’s Inventory seems to be one bright spot in a rather dark spreadsheet.

The months of inventory refers to the time it would take to sell the remaining homes listed for sale at the current sales pace. Two major factors in this are how many homes are selling each month and how many new listings are coming on the market. The lower the months inventory the fewer homes there are to choose from and price stability invariably creeps back into the market.

Last December the three month moving average for Belmont stood at 5.47 months and this December that had fallen to only 3.61 months.

There were slightly fewer listings this year (10) and 18 more sales which accounted for this favorable statistic.

Read our next post on the buying opportunity window which is closing fast.

Mid Peninsula Housing Trends--2009

What happened in 2009 and what might be in store for 2010?

THE PAST

The median price in San Mateo County ended the year at $678,750 which is a dramatic drop from 2008’s year-end median price of $795,000. It continued to drop precipitously throughout the beginning of 2009, though it appears that January of 2009 was its lowest level when the median price reached $553,750—the median price has not been that low since 2000.

It wasn’t until April of 2009 that the median price reached the $600,000’s and the last four month have seen small but steady increases culminating in December’s median price of $750,000. But don’t read too much into these increases. Much of the median price increase is a result of larger homes selling do to the low interest rates and higher conforming limits.

Belmont and much of the mid-peninsula were less affected by the declines. The median price in Belmont dropped from $920,000 in 2008 to $833,725 in 2009 (9.4%). There are several factors which contributed to mid-peninsula cities faring better in declining markets.

THE BACK STORY

Beginning around 2001, many first time buyers entered the market with very little cash and qualified for adjustable teaser rate loans at an artificially low interest rate. Zero down financing meant that that if prices were to drop, they’d be in a negative equity position, making it impossible to refinance out of their adjustable loan. When the banks allowed people to qualify for a loan based at the artificially low teaser rate, when rates adjusted many could no longer make the minimum payment. Without the ability to refinance into a new loan, they were forced into foreclosure.

There are far fewer entry level homes in many of the mid-peninsula communities (Redwood City excepted). Therefore, these cities were spared the bulk of the foreclosures and resulting price declines. Furthermore, many people in these communities have ample equity from previous home sales and were able to refinance, or sit on the sidelines and avoid a distress sale.

THE FUTURE

We won’t pretend to have a crystal ball, so we’re not going out on a limb to try and predict the future. The real estate landscape has changed dramatically in the last several years and how it will shake out is anyone’s guess. But what we imagine could be a probability is that in 2010 will see much more of the same. We expect the record number of foreclosures which have been temporarily withheld from the market to be released and continue to put downward pressure on prices—especially in areas which have yet to be affected. Interest rates are sure to climb above their historical low levels making the cost of home ownership rise. This could easily offset any momentum which could otherwise spur normal home sales. Investors will continue to snap up good deals on distressed properties causing the number of sales to increase, but the median price to decrease, or stay flat. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a period of flat home prices for many years before any appreciable increase. People will first have to return to the job market before they will consider buying a home. Frustratingly, home sales have a huge effect on creating jobs so it’s easy to see why the government wants so desperately to have people buy a home (and extended the $8,000 tax credit). Once more people are being hired than fired consumer confidence will begin to slowly return. Folks will invariably reenter the housing market but at a less frenetic pace. Lasting memories of the “Great Recession” will haunt many homebuyers; and with higher interest rates and the days of easy money gone, it will be harder for prices to climb at rates seen in the first decade of the new millennium.

Don’t forget you can always check out the stats for a city near you on our web page.

Belmont Housing Market Report for November 2009

Well it’s another one of those tricky months where the numbers tell an inaccurate story when it comes to the value of Belmont homes.

(Click on the graphic for a full size view)

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Looking at the raw numbers, the median home value in Belmont dropped from $912,500 last November to $784,000 this year. That’s a whopping 14% decrease but wait—let’s look at what really happened.

This November Belmont had three short sales which greatly impacted the results. More importantly was that the majority of the homes sold were much smaller than they were last year. Larger homes sell for less per square foot (since land is a constant). Therefore if many smaller homes sell in a given period the price per square foot statistic will rise while the median home price will fall. Watch for this inversely proportional relationship to guess when there might be more to the story than meets the eye.

The median size Belmont home which sold in 2008 was 2095 Sq. Ft. and only 1568 in 2009. The difference of 342 square feet multiplied by the smaller price per square foot median of $488 last year means the adjusted median home value in Belmont this November would be $950,000, or an increase of 4%.

NUMBER OF SALES

The most impressive statistic is the number of sales which at 22 almost tripled from 2008. That speaks volumes as to consumer confidence in the local market. If sales were up because values were dramatically depressed, that would not be nearly as impressive. Of course the artificial interest rates people are enjoying right now are no doubt a contributing factor in the number of buyers who see an opportunity to lock in a home with a 30 year mortgage for under 5%--better move soon if that’s an important factor in your home buying decision.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home is virtually unchanged but it’s interesting to note, after much analysis, that the actual DOM this November was 121, not 39. This is because several of the short sales which took FOREVER to sell (usually because the banks are really bad at getting around to looking at offers) skewed the numbers (see the lower row of adjusted sales).

% Received

The percent a seller received of asking remains as a statistic, virtually unchanged; however this number varies dramatically from home to home.

What’s our take on this?

The Belmont market appears to be stabilizing in a comfort zone where buyers can still get reasonable deals and most sellers still have ample equity.

Call today if you are thinking of a move in 2010!

Belmont-July 2009 Home Sales (by request)

We’re posting the sales for Belmont from back in July at the insistence of one of our readers (thanks for being so patient). We skipped that month since we were so busy ourselves. Quite a few buyers came out of the woodwork in July and we noticed it on one of our listings in San Carlos that had multiple offers. In our estimation, the Peninsula real estate market has not recovered significantly enough to warrant such activity but the low interest rates probably spurred people into action—all at once.

At 24, July had the most sales and of any month this year.  The median price was also the highest it has been all year at $926,500. But just look at how many homes sold over a million dollars! There were some very large homes selling which definitely propped up the median price temporarily.  We’ll go out on a limb and say that will probably hold for the remainder of the year—and well into the next; mostly because of the seasonal nature of real estate.

The prices that the sellers accepted were far under what their homes were listed for, indicating some tough negotiations by buyers and capitulating by sellers. Fifteen of the 24 homes sold under asking for on average of $ 43,000 less.

Sales in July were still less than half of what they were just a few years ago when homes were flying off the shelves. Still, it’s nice to see a momentary blip—unless you are a buyer. Speaking of that, if you are a buyer, the best time to buy a home is coming up soon. Don’t start your winter hibernation too soon and miss out on what we expect will be some great deals in December and January.

Belmont Market Report--October 2009

Changes to the Belmont home market seemed to have slowed recently.

 

(click the graph for a full sized image) Data retreived from the MLS.

 MEDIAN PRICE

In 2008 the median home price stood at $960,000 in the month of October. This year, it has dropped to $865,000.

Once again the numbers are a bit misleading. The size home which sold last year in October was 150 square feet larger. The adjusted median home price for Belmont this year should be $938,000 which would put the median drop at a paltry 2.2% year over year.

DOM

The sellers in Belmont are still receiving around 99% of their asking price, just that they have to ask a little less this year.

SALES

Sales dropped from September but were almost double what they were last year at this time--reflecting more confidence in the market. Of course this number may be influenced by a mad dash of buyers availing themselves of the $8,000 tax credit.

So far 1.2 million buyers have qualified for the $8,000 tax credit. 40% of those said they would not have considered buying a home without it. 70% said it weighed heavily on their decision to purchase e home. Really? All it takes is an $8,000 credit and people are willing to buy a home?

The graph below shows the sales in Belmont for the month of October 2009. Since homes are sometimes relisted, the total days on market and original list price totals can be skewed. We searched the records and reported the actual data—noted by the green dots in the columns. This helps portray a more accurate picture of the time it takes to sell a home and the price a seller receives. Of the 14 sales in October one sold for asking in ten days. Seven sold for less than asking and were on the market an average of 113 days when they received, on average, ~$14,000 less than their LOWERED asking price. The sellers that appropriately priced their home fared much better, receiving on average $2,000 more than their asking price (we defined pricing a home right when it sells within the first month) and sold on average in only 33.5 says. More money, faster sale, one wold think every seller would try to price their home right.

 

Belmont Home Sales--September 2009

Belmont closed out the month of September with less than a stellar performance. There were 18 sales which is respectable--a couple more than last month--but still shy of even a normal market.

Is this still a Buyer’s market? We think so.

 

 

 

 

(Click on thechart to see an enlarged version).

 

Look at the percent a seller receives of their asking price. Few homes are selling over the asking price and if they are it's usually because the home is deeply discounted in the first place.

Another sign is the time a home languishes on the market, as expressed in Realtor speak as D.O.M. or Days on Market. Currently it stands at 45 days with six of the sales being listed for 3/4 of a year or more. One sale had to of broken the all time record when it finally closed after being on the market 700 days!

The median price took another beating in Belmont as the raw numbers show another 5% decrease over July values. Adjusted for smaller or larger homes selling, that percent is halved, but still, a 2.5% decrease is a downward trend that we hope will soon slow.

Belmont Home Sales -- August 2009

August turned out to be a respectable month for Belmont sales with at 16 it was just one sale shy of last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DOM

You might notice a few oddities in the Days on Market stat. First, our MLS did away with Original Days on market vs. Days on Market as they felt it was simply too confusing. Original Days on market counted from when the home was first listed for sale and the old DOM stat simply kept tract of the most recent listing. Now, the DOM stat is for as long as the home was listed for sale—even with various brokers—with the caveat that if a home was de-listed for more than 30 days it resets to zero.

Percent of Asking

True to form homes that languish on the market received less than their faster selling counterparts. Note that of the ten homes that sold in their first 25 days of being listed did not have to lower their price with six selling on average for $23,000 over their asking and the remaining four for $22,000 under.

Of the six homes that were listed for more than 25 days ALL sold for under their ORIGINAL asking price—on average the seller received $86,000 less or 97% of asking as compared to well priced homes which received 104% of asking (Read was originally listed at $1,125,000 and Arroyo at $769,000 before being re-listed at a lower number that skews the results).

Median Price

The median price of homes selling in August was $837,500 and the median size home sold was 1655 square feet. Last month the median price was $917,000 but the home sold were larger at a median point of 1,860 square feet.

Last year in August the Median price was $947,000 but the size home was also much larger at 2,030.

If you work out the numbers the values really haven't changed much at all over last August, though for the entire year they are down closer to 12%.

The fall selling season is just getting started with another full quarter soon to review. If you are thinking of selling this year now’s the time to take action—the best time is between now and Thanksgiving.

Belmont - June 2009 stats

It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.

	May-09	Jun-09	Δ from May	Jun-08	Δ from '08
Median	$840,000	$878,000	$38,000	$877,000	$1,000
DOM	46	25	21	43	18
Month's Inventory	4	3	1	3	0
Sales	14	21	7	20	1
Inventory	62	62	0	61	1
% Received	98%	98%	0.0%	91%	7.00%
Median Size Home	1,710	2000	290	1600	400
Price per Sq. Ft.	$502.00	$493.00	$9.00	$548.00	$55.00

Belmont Homes Sales - May 2009

What’s happening in our local market is the number one question we receive so here’s the good the bad and the ugly for May 2009 in Belmont.

The Good

The number of homes sold in creased in May to 15 from April’s paltry 12. Still, compared to 2004 when 32 homes sold there’s not a lot of activity.

The number of days it took to sell a home in Belmont went from 48 in April down to only 37 in May.

Of the 15 sales in May, 5 sold over the asking price, none sold at asking, and 10 sold under the seller’s asking price.

The Bad

Homes which were originally overpriced took a beating.

Overprice Homes	10	Homes Priced Well	5
DOM	76.8	DOM	18.8
Percent Received of Original List Price	89%	Percent Received of Original List Price	101.4%
Real Dollar change	$67,000 less	Real Dollar Change	$5,000 more

 

The number of overpriced homes reaching a factor of 2-1 over well priced homes is indicative of the disconnect between what sellers feel their home is worth as compared to what a buyer will actually pay. It’s clear by looking at the numbers though that the number one mistake a seller can make continues to be overpricing their home.

The Ugly.

The median price in Belmont continued its correction in May.

	May 2009	April 2009	May 2008	May 2007
Median Price	$820000	$775,000	$1,098,750	$1,036,733
* Corrected for size of home	$820,000	$855,000	$952,300	$1,106,533
May Δ in percent		-4.09%	-13.94%	- 25.89%

 

*We endeavor to report the true median price as accurately as possible. In doing so, we must take into consideration if larger or smaller homes are selling in a given period.

 

*Date retrieved form the Multiple Listing Service of San Mateo County.

Market Report--Belmont Home Sales April 2009

The homes sale report for April shows a continuing slide in both sales and median price for the Peninsula cities, though we appear to have a lull in the action.

Take the median price of single family homes in San Mateo County for example. In April of 2008 it stood at $925,000. This April that number came in at $610,000—a whopping 34% decrease. Sales have dropped 15% over last year at the same time and 40% off the peak of the market in 2005. Yet every month so far this year the median price has been creeping back up—ever so slightly. Exciting news? Not really. The median price almost without fail creeps up this time of year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Click on the image to see a full sized graphic) 

For Belmont, April home sales came in at a disappointing 13 for the entire month, a 38% decrease over last year’s more typical 21 sales for the month.

The median price came in at $775,000, considerably off of the $930,000 reported just last April. The size homes which sold last April were only slightly larger—3.7%. Which means that the calculated median home price loss of 16.6% might be closer to only 13%, if that makes anyone feel any better.

And don’t expect to get close to what you are asking. On average in Belmont sellers are receiving only 94.84% of their asking price and it is taking about 33% longer for them to get less for their home.  Don’t think that isn’t hurting agents too. Agents who are listing homes for sale are finding it takes longer to sell a home. Longer listing periods can mean thousands more in advertising costs and with values dropping, thousands less in commissions.

Click here to see April sales report for surrounding cities.

Belmont Housing Report--March 2009

The home sales are in for Belmont for the month of March 2009 and they exhibit all the indications of a continuing declining market. We wrote a short post on what the numbers mean when compared to the same period just a few years back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the same period just twoyears ago...

Belmont--A Month in Review January 2009

The first month of the year is in the books as we close out the sales for January 2009 in Belmont.

With 40 homes on the market, inventory is showing signs of creeping up. Looking at past January inventory levels, they typically hover in the low 20 range. Higher inventory levels usually means sellers will get less than their asking price as the supply and demand is in imbalance.

It’s always interesting for us to see why inventory levels are up. There can be several factors but they almost all have a common thread and that’s the market is slowing down.

Most buyers can easily get a loan, despite whatever impression from the media one might have. Sure you need to have a better credit score than last year, and you actually must have a downpayment now, but lenders are happy to make good loans and they’re doing so at a frenetic pace.

But if buyers are afraid that the market is tanking, or that they may be about of a job soon, they’ll sit on the sidelines and the inventory will grow.

Seller’s who think they had better get out now, or sadly ones who have perhaps already lost their job, need an exit strategy now—they can’t wait for the market values to return.

Together these factors cause inventory levels to grow and that has an inverse relationship on values.

In Belmont the median price has dropped below $900,000 for the last two months in a row; and though we occasionally dip down under $ 900K (due to a shift in the size of homes selling), one has to go back to 2004 to see the median price stay this low.

Belmont-Month in Review December 2008

We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.

This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in the median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.

Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).

Click on the chart for a readable picture.

Belmont - November 2008 Housing Report

We anticipated Belmont home sales closing at eight for the month of November in a previous post where we did an extensive review of the local market.

Click on the play tab to hear an overview

These first two graphs will be explained more in detail further in our post but as you can see the percentage of homes selling over the seller's asking price has increased.

(Click on the chart below for a full size image).

As you can see from the sales report, sales are down considerably from the previous month and down from than that of a year ago as well. We’ve added a chart showing the differences (below) that will help put November’s numbers in perspective.

(Click on the chart below for a full size image).

 

To sum up the data we’ve also added arrows depicting whether each indicator (or data point) is an improvement this November over the two previous periods reviewed. An up arrow ↑indicates that this November’s data is an improvement over the previous periods while a down arrow↓ indicates the opposite is true.

MEDIAN PRICE

The Median price, the point at which half of the homes have sold more or less, remains virtually unchanged from October 2008. Counter intuitively November’s median at $912,000 is higher than in 2007 when it stood at $894,000. The size of homes selling greatly impacts the price per square foot as smaller homes sell for more per square foot and larger homes tend to sell for more period. Accounting for the difference where in 2007 the median home size was 1645 square feet and this year where the median home sold was 1,910 sq. ft., at $514 per square foot that would make the 265 sq. ft. difference in size worth around $136,210 meaning that home values actually dropped 7% over last year’s November, not up 2% as the raw data suggests.

SALES

At only eight sales as compared to last November’s 20, it’s amazing that inventory is not higher. At the time we wrote this the inventory of active homes for sale in Belmont stood at only 50. To some degree that helps balance the supply and demand and keep prices in relatively check.

This November three homes sold over their asking price—the same number as last year. The difference is this year homes that sold over their asking price represented 43% of all the November sales while last year it represented only 15%.

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:

Be careful not to read too much into this. Last year homes sold in November sold for $70.00 more per square foot than this November—but the homes that sold last year were much smaller; and  as was discussed above, smaller homes tend to sell for more per square foot because land is a constant in the calculation and can account for half of a home’s value.

PERCENT RECEIVED:

This November sellers received on average 99.38% of their asking price—virtually unchanged over October’s performance and better than last November’s 97.9%. This needs to be weighed against the CDOM (Continuous Days on Market) and the number of price reductions statistics to be meaningful at all. Sure homes sold this November closer to their asking price, but did the seller receive more in real dollars? How many price reductions and how many days a typical home is on the market help put this number in perspective. Notice that homes which needed a price reduction in order to sell accounted for nearly 63% of all sales this November while last year they accounted for only 25%. But the time it took to sell a home, though higher than in October, dropped from 46 to only 29 days this November. What does this suggest? That more sellers are forced to lower their expectations and lower their asking prices sooner rather than later.

This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.

Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.

Download Nov.2008

Market Update-11.24.2008

	Drew & Christine Morgan   Housing Update--November 2008				(650) 508-1441 dmorgan@morganhomes.com
About us	Home	Find A Home	Find an Open House	What's My Home Worth?
San Mateo County continues to out performed many of the nine bay area counties but a protracted deep recession could change all that. Join us for our Podcast series now available at BeautifulMountainBlog.org     We’re very excited to bring you a new animated version of our graphs depicting the various housing market trends in San Mateo County and the cities which lie within. Each month we download data from our Multiple Listing Service and analyze the market indicators. We provide this in-depth analysis for several of the many cities we serve on the Peninsula. We’ve also added short audio tags to describe what we are depicting and help put the information in perspective. Another feature will be our “Weekly Graph”. We’re not saying it will change each week but when an interesting trend develops you’ll find it under that tab. We hope you’ll take a moment to check out our new graphical interface on our “How’s the Market?” link and give us some feedback.

Belmont--September Housing Statistics

Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.

Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.

This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.

Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.

The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.

Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to August:

(click for a larger view)

 

This is Belmont's Full report for September 2008:

(click for a larger view)

August 2008 Housing in Review--San Mateo County

The big news in August was the Government take-over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which has had the desired effect of bolstering mortgage backed securities and lowering interest rates. What it ends up costing us all is yet to be determined but suffice to say it’ll probably be worse than if we suffered through a protracted catastrophic collapse of the United States’ financial markets.

Listen here to the audio version.

Looking at San Mateo County’s housing activity for August you get a glimpse at the impact the housing downturn has had and where it may be headed.

This graph shows the correlation between the number of homes for sale and the median price:

• Median Price is down a statistically insignificant amount--$5K from July to $795,000. Down 16.3% from August 2007
• Belmont and San Carlos down around 4% year over year
• Menlo Park posts a ½ percent increase in the median price.
• Closed sales down from July's 428 to 376 in August--last August there were 366 sales
• Inventory declines again--third month in a row from 1886 in July to 1773 in August. Up 14% over August 2007 at 15544
• Month’s supply of home rises only slightly to 4.7 from 4.4

Download August.mp3

Belmont Housing Review--August 2008

August, 2008

The data for the summer months suggests Belmont's housing sector may be near or at the bottom for any market corrections though the picture outside the mid-peninsula remains uncertain. Belmont is a micro-market and we take this position not because all of the data points to positive market indicators, but rather the data points are all in flux.

Taken as a whole, the sumer wasn't bad to Belmont sellers at all. But like we've said before, it's extremely hard to telll how bad a storm will be when you are in the middle of one; but all storms do pass and we're getting a glimpse of daylight in our numbers. Whichever is the case-- whether we are near the bottom or passed it--we're all along for the ride, for better or for worse.

Instability in these critical numbers such as the amount a seller receives of their asking price, the median price compared to the size homes actually sold month-over-month is indicative of a market in change. In other words there is no real direction in which all the numbers point—whether it’s a buyer or seller’s market.

←Click on the spreadsheet for a larger size.

↓The number of sales in August fell to only 17 after posting a year high of 25 in July (there were 22 last year at this time). Though sales were down 32%, there were also 22% fewer homes to sell.

↑The median price however rose to $947,000 from $890,000 in July. In August last year the median price was $988,500. See our post on the median price correlation and the size of homes selling to put these wild fluctuations in perspective.

↓The time it took to sell a home went from 14 days in July to 41 in August. That’s a strong indicator that the slow summer months liquidated some old inventory; remember most of July’s sales were consummated in May and June.

↓The amount the seller received of their asking price dropped a whopping 7% from 98.37% in July to 91% in August and dropped 11% over last year when it stood at 102%. This statistic is understandable when homes are selling in 41 days instead of 14 as they did last month. Homes which are overpriced and languish on the market tend to sell way under what they should, but we’ll save that for our next post. Still, you can’t help but compare this to last year’s performance and give it a big red arrow.

This fall we expect sales will pick up a bit from August but still remain under last year's numbers. This winter could be relatively quiet but we expect next spring to determine the fate of the local market into 2009.

Data extracted from the Multiple Listing Serice for San Mateo County.

The information contained in this postis educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Housing Activity--Week Ending August 16th 2008

 

New Listings!

Activity last week was slow in Belmont as the housing market always takes lazy summer pace about this time of year. Once people get back from their last vacations and get the kids ready for school, the market picks up again from just after Labor Day until Thanksgiving.

There were only three new listings last week, three homes that went pending and six that closed escrow lowering Belmont’s total inventory to 44. Of the six that closed escrow only 1 went over asking but it did so the tune of over $100,000! Historically, home sell closer to asking in the summer month’s so there’s no real trend here that’s not expected. It will probably drop once more before climbing again in September. We’d be remise if we didn't say to Sellers to get their home on the market earlier rather than later after Labor Day.

As for the new listings, none of these homes made it on the market in time for last Tuesday's tour so we don’t have a lot of feedback as of yet.

ACTIVE

1514 Pine Knoll Dr   Belmont   2/1  Pine Knoll is a GREAT street in Belmont. It sits atop one of Belmont earliest bluffs where people built summer vacation cottages back in the 30's. This one looks really nice at the price looks good too. Definitely one to check out if you can handle only two bedrooms. OPEN SUNDAY 1:30-4:30 8/17

1134 North Ct   Belmont   3.2  Another short sale story, this    1,400 sq. ft. home was sold in 2005 for $951,000. Re-listed in 2006 at $968,000, it never sold. Now it's a lender short sale at $765,000. That's a good deal to be on the west side. If you're patient, this one may be worth checking out but remember short sales can be problematic. If you’re unfamiliar with short sales you can check out our blog article on them here.  OPEN SUNDAY 1:00-4:00 8/17

320 Treasure Island Dr   Belmont   3/2 &1/2  This is a townhome style condominium association in Belmont out near Oracle. At   1,770   square feet it's a lot of home for the money and if you work at Orcale that's a nice commute! OPEN SUNDAY 1:00-4:00 8/17

Pending Sale homes.

 

Three homes went into pending status last week and the one that needs mention is San Ardo. This was our Best Belmont Deal last week and sure enough it sold in four days. Remember, this home was listed for only $725,000 for a 3/2 1420 square foot home in the Belmont Hills! Anyone care to guess what it will close for? Let’s just say it could close for as high as $825,000 and still be a fair price.

SOLD

  1400 Arden Lane   Belmont   3/2  This home was located near the San Carlos border on the eastern side of the hills. We knew this would go fast and indeed it did. It was only on the market for 10 days when it sold for $1,111,000 a whopping $136,000 over asking! It had a nice floor plan on one level and some usable flat yard area--always a premium in the hills.

2721 Sequoia Way   Belmont   4/2& 1/2 This home stuck around awhile on the market. With some of the best views in Belmont--overlooking Sugarloaf Mountain and San Francisco City views, frankly I'm surprised that they couldn't have got more for this home. There's a lesson here about how to market a home for sale... It sold under the asking price of $1,010,000 at $950,000.

2627 Barclay Way   Belmont   4/4+  We used live across the street from this home before we moved to Hallmark. I love this neighborhood. You feel like you’re in the Tahoe wilderness up there. There's a sad story that goes along with this home. It sold back in 2005 for $1,129,000 for what we thought at the time as WAY too high of a price. Sure enough when they went to try and sell, the same fervor in the market did not exist and they had a heck of a time selling it once again and ending up selling short of what they owed at $860,000.

1909 Arbor Av   Belmont   3/ 2  This home was only 1,100 sq. ft. hence the low sale price for the Belmont Hills. It closed after being on the market for only 13 days at $798,000 some $15,000 under the asking price of $813,888

2022 Monroe Av   Belmont   3/2  Another short sale property in the Belmont Hills, this home was on the market for 173 days. Still at only 1,100 square feet it sold for $668.00 per square foot at $735,000, though it was listed higher at $799,000. 

1101 Continentals Way, #301. 1 Bed 1 Bath At only 740 square feet the condo is the lowest sale in Belmont but we threw it in so you can tell your friends who are renting to buy a one bedroom like this instead. It sold for only $350,000!

Belmont's Housing Activity--Week ending 8.08.08

Belmont Housing Activity                             Δ from prior week

New listings                                        3              ↓

Homes that went pending                   2              ↓

Homes that closed escrow                  1              ↓

Total Inventory                                  45             ↑

Only two homes received an offer last week and went pending, three new listings hit the market, and with only one sale the inventory rose slightly. Most closings are scheduled for the end of the month and there are currently have 15 set to close by then.

NEW LISTINGS

2503 Read Ave., Belmont 2 Bed/ 2 Bath 950 Sq. Ft. for $799,000.

2818 San Ardo Way, Belmont 3 Bed/ 2 Bath 1420 Sq. Ft. home for $725,000 * Our Belmont’s Best Deal pick of the week! OPEN SAT & SUN 8/9th & 10th from 2:00-4:00

807 Ruth Ave., Belmont 2 Beds/ 1 Bath 1,40 Sq. Ft. home for $719,000

SOLD HOMES

3614 Hillcrest 5 beds/3 baths 2840 Sq. Ft. sold for $850,000.

This home was simply entered for a comp. I’m not sure why because it’s a bad one at that. It never hit the market and apparently was a real contractor’s special.

MorganHomes.com

Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

The week ending August 8th of 2008 may have been the luckiest date in this decade but seller's who wanted to move weren’t quite so fortunate. The Belmont housing activity was rather slow this past week.

Peninsula Home Values in the Bay Area

We're testing out some fun fusion style charts for our blog page so we thought we'd throw this chart out to show the median price trends in various Peninsula cities as compared to San Mateo county as a whole. When a housing market adjustment happens, the old saying location, location, location (being the three most important things in real estate), takes on a whole new meaning. It's not just about living in a nice place, it becomes also about living in an area where the prices are more stable.

Belmont Housing Activity-Week ending July 17, 2008

Belmont--New Listings & Sales

With 47 Active listings Belmont’s inventory is holding steady. Last week saw five new listings—five more than last week. Another seven homes went pending and 11 closed escrow. Here’s a quick summary:

Pine Knoll is a secluded street atop a knoll in one of Belmont older neighborhoods. This is a cute home which was originally a small summer cabin. In fact, it still is a small cabin and needs to be totally redone in order to make a real house out of it. One gets a sense of the fun summer vacations which were no doubt had at this location.

1504 PINE KNOLL DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $899,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s) DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 80821315  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 2 / 1 SqFt: 1,330 Yr Built / Age: 1932 / 76 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 11,076 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $899,000 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: OffMktDate: Excellent Locationg on Culdesac street. Unbelievable views of the Bay. Large 11k lot with huge potential to expand or build. Current structure is over 1300 squ ft and has a full unfinished basement. Large family roome with Oak hardwood floors. Build your dream home with Panaramic Views of the entire bay area!!!!! Listed By Brendan Royer, Cashin Company This home on East Laurel Creek made our best deal of the week list for price and value. It’s nestled down in the canyon and feels more like a home in Tahoe than the suburbs. 3224 E LAUREL CREEK RD, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $768,500 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 80821373  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,700 Yr Built / Age: 1971 / 37 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 5,650 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $768,500 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: OffMktDate: Open Sat 7/19 1-4pm & Sun 7/20 1-3pm ~ Tahoe Style Chalet. Creek across the street so views are beautiful!! Beamed ceilings! Roof replaced! Huge windows with gorgeous woodsy setting!! 3 car parking! Updated baths!! Open kitchen! Big rooms lots of sqft!!! Huge family room! Big decks to entertain! Listed By Laura Bertolacci, RE/MAX Today Ridgewood Court is a cul-de-sac off of Hastings and these homes are all attached. Seems a little overpriced to us. 5 RIDGEWOOD CT, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,028,000 Beds: 4 bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s) DOM: 2  CDOM: 2   MLS: 80822165    Property Overview Attached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 4 / 2 1/2 SqFt: 2,280 Yr Built / Age: 1977 / 31 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 3,675 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,028,000 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: OffMktDate: This home has been completely remodeled with quality materials and fine finishes. Dual pane windows throughout, Granite kitchen counters, fine birch cabinets, Brazilian cherry wood floors, tiled bathrooms, recessed lighting, crown moldings, tall baseboards, new rear yard fence and recently painted exterior. Listed By George Chopoff, RE/MAX Star Properties This home is so new on the market even we aren’t going to see it until nest Tueday’s tour. It’s open Sunday, July 20th  1:30-4:30 if you want to go by. 1400 ARDEN LN, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $975,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 1  CDOM: 1   MLS: 80822410    Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,730 Yr Built / Age: 1959 / 49 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 10,660 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $975,000 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: OffMktDate: New Listing! This irresistible sunfilled immaculately maintained private California ranch home offers 3BD/2BA/FM, Formal LR & DR, 2 fireplaces, beautiful random plank hardwood floors, laundry rm and 2 car garage with extra storage.Peaceful retreat with views of the courtyard, decking, and patios can be seen from almost every room. Close proximity to commute routes, CalTrain, & trendy cafes. Listed By Joan Tosetti, Alain Pinel Realtors Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** Waterloo is in the Belcrest Gardens—Hallmark Area—of Belmont. This one backs up to the open space watershed preserve. A little windy but nice views! 26 WATERLOO CT, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,550,000 Beds: 6+ bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s) DOM: 1  CDOM: 1   MLS: 80822427  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 6+ / 2 1/2 SqFt: 2,750 Yr Built / Age: 1970 / 38 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 10,990 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,550,000 Sale Price: Sale Date: COE Date: OffMktDate: 6 BEDROOM HOME IN HALLMARK AREA OF BELMONT. BACKYARD ADJACENT TO (SF WATERSHED) FABULOUS VIEWS OF WESTERN HILLS. DIRECT ACCESS TO TRAILS AND PARKS. PARTIAL VIEWS OF BAY. UPGRADED KITCHEN AND BATHS, THIS HOME HAS IT ALL. LOCATION, VIEWS, SPACE & CUL-DE-SAC! Listed By Nathalie D.S.A, Coldwell Banker-Menlo Park-El Camino The list below is for homes that closed escrow last week. 2761 YOSEMITE DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $955,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 8  CDOM: 28   MLS: 80813267  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,410 Yr Built / Age: 1957 / 51 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 6,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $974,500 Sale Price: $955,000 Sale Date: 06/12/2008 COE Date: 07/11/2008 OffMktDate: Dramatic Rancher in Immaculate Condition! Move-in Condition w/Open Great Room and Sheltered Backyard. Convenient location w/Fox Elementary School! Surround Sound included! Oversized 2 Car Garage plus Closets Galore!Beautiful Hardwood Floors, Soaring Ceilings, Recessed Lights, Double pane Windows & New Roof! Easy Living Here! 3406 LODGE DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $915,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 16  CDOM: 16   MLS: 80809314  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,790 Yr Built / Age: 1960 / 48 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 4,500 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $898,888 Sale Price: $915,000 Sale Date: 06/01/2008 COE Date: 07/11/2008 OffMktDate: 07/12/2008 Back on the market! You get a second chance! This wonderful home boast newly refinished hardwood floors, an eat in kitchen with granite counters, vaulted ceilings, family room, interior just painted. Family room on the lower level leads to the patio. Some bay views from the master bedroom. At this price, this won't last long! Hurry! 1923 BAYVIEW AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $940,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 19  CDOM: 19   MLS: 80810297  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,810 Yr Built / Age: 1956 / 52 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 4,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $949,000 Sale Price: $940,000 Sale Date: 06/09/2008 COE Date: 07/11/2008 OffMktDate: New Cherry hardwood floors in the main floor level, kitchen, bedrooms ect Great view off the deck looking out toward Stanford. lower level can be used as bedrooms, familyroom and bedroom, many choices. New driveway and fences. Full grown Redwwod tree at the front of house. 802 HILLER ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $660,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 32  CDOM: 32   MLS: 80810405  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,150 Yr Built / Age: 1952 / 56 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 7,300 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $699,999 Sale Price: $660,000 Sale Date: 06/23/2008 COE Date: 07/10/2008 OffMktDate: 3BR/2BA, 1150+/-SF, LR/DR COMBO, GARAGE CONVERTED TO FAMILY ROOM, LARGE STORAGE SHED ON SIDE OF HOUSE THAT CAN ACCOMODATE A CAR, HEATED POOL, FENCED YARD, CONVENIENT LOCATION CLOSE TO SCHOOL, SHOPPING, TRANSPORTAION AND HWY 101. Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** 2323 CORONET BL, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $1,025,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s) DOM: 21  CDOM: 21   MLS: 80812139  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 1/2 SqFt: 1,820 Yr Built / Age: 1977 / 31 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 6,200 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $1,077,000 Sale Price: $1,025,000 Sale Date: 06/20/2008 COE Date: 07/11/2008 OffMktDate: This sunny, bright and airy contemporary home has been carefully updated with an attention to European design and modern architecture. Providing peaceful privacy galore, the house is nestled away from the street, surrounded by mature oak, pine and redwood trees. Two-story gallery windows bring the outside in and offer breathtaking unobstructed views of the bay and peninsula hills. 412 HILLER ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $660,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s) DOM: 28  CDOM: 28   MLS: 80809737  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 1 SqFt: 1,010 Yr Built / Age: 1953 / 55 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 5,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $718,000 Sale Price: $660,000 Sale Date: 06/16/2008 COE Date: 07/16/2008 OffMktDate: Home sweet home - This is a sweet one! 3/1 in Sterling Downs. Great value in Belmont, in great location close to freeways 101 & 92. Great schools. Kitchen with skylights, new interior paint and carpet, double pane windows, surround sound in each bedroom. 508 ALAMEDA DE LAS PULGAS, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $890,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 46  CDOM: 46   MLS: 80808120  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,570 Yr Built / Age: 1947 / 61 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 8,200 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $969,000 Sale Price: $890,000 Sale Date: 06/27/2008 COE Date: 07/18/2008 OffMktDate: Remodeled Home featuring Old World Charm on an 8,200sf lush landscaped level lot in the lower Belmont Hills! Three bedrooms and two baths, Gourmet kitchen has granite counters and designer cabinetry, plus modern gas range and appliances. Romantic Master Bedroom features cozy fireplace and vaulted beamed ceilings. Fireplace in LR and Separate Dining Room feature craftsman style beamed ceilings. 68 EDGEWOOD PL, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $910,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s) DOM: 14  CDOM: 14   MLS: 80811434  Property Overview Attached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 1/2 SqFt: 2,090 Yr Built / Age: 2003 / 5 years Assoc Fee: $173 Lot: 2,030 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $949,000 Sale Price: $910,000 Sale Date: 06/11/2008 COE Date: 07/03/2008 OffMktDate: Exclusive Ross Woods home with spectacular bay views. Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, formal living room, formal dining room, family kitchen, soaring ceilings, and walls of glass doors and windows let in tons of natural light. A beautiful home for the discriminating buyer who does not want a yard to maintain. Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed ** 3425 LODGE DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $945,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 3 bath(s) DOM: 11  CDOM: 11   MLS: 80812113  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 3 SqFt: 1,800 Yr Built / Age: 1974 / 34 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 3,900 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $949,000 Sale Price: $945,000 Sale Date: 06/10/2008 COE Date: 07/15/2008 OffMktDate: Ablsolutely gorgeous! Come by & see for yourself. This home had been updated w/loving care. 3BR/3 full BA's. Remodeled eat-in kit w/granite countertops, maple cabs & stainless steel appl opens to fam rm w/sliding doors & access to rear level yd. LR/DR with lge bay window & gas fireplace. Bonus room off 3rd BR great for office or playroom. Double pane wndws thruout. Central heat & air w/2 zones. 1502 WINDING WY, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $769,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s) DOM: 2  CDOM: 2   MLS: 80816411  Property Overview Detached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 SqFt: 1,290 Yr Built / Age: 1958 / 50 years Assoc Fee: Lot: 6,000 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $769,000 Sale Price: $769,000 Sale Date: 06/21/2008 COE Date: 07/23/2008 OffMktDate: Beautiful bay views, family room off kitchen, fireplace in living room and family room, large deck off family room, attached two-car garage with workshop area and plenty of storage. 52 HERITAGE CT, Belmont 94002 (Belmont) $900,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 1/2 bath(s) DOM: 15  CDOM: 61   MLS: 80817085  Property Overview Attached Single Family (Class 1) Bed/Bath: 3 / 2 1/2 SqFt: 1,910 Yr Built / Age: 1972 / 36 years Assoc Fee: $375 Lot: 1,656 sq ft Pricing/Dates List Price: $949,950 Sale Price: $900,000 Sale Date: 07/08/2008 COE Date: 07/17/2008 OffMktDate: LOCATED ON TREE FILLED CULDESAC.UNOBSTRUCTED,PANO VIEWS! WALL/WALL WINDOWS! FORML ENTRY, SPACIOUS FAM RM, OFFIC,DEN,. LR W/MANTLED GRANITE FRPLC,MEDIA ALCOVE & 54WINE BOTTLE STORAGE. UPDT KIT W/COFERRED CEILING.MSTR BA W/OVERSIZD GRANITE TILE SHOWER. 3 DECKS, PATIO HDWD FLRS,CUSTM WALL COL0RS,CRWN MOLDING,MANY AMENITIES! THE TOPPER IS HEATED FLOORS IN THE MASTERBATH. Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

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Belmont Sales (Closings)--Week ending July 10, 2008

With 46 homes for sale, Belmont’s inventory is down this week. Twenty six more have a pending sale. Part of the reason the inventory is low this week is the number of new listings was ZERO. That’s very unusual for the summer market.

Seven homes went into a pending sale status last week (all but one was under a million dollars) and another six homes closed escrow--two from our Carlmont Associates Brokerage (see below). One of our picks for the “Best Deal of the Week” on Carmelita closed escrow for $710,000--$11,000 over asking.

Belmont Closings--Week ending July 10, 2008

2000 MONROE AV Detached Single Family (Class 1) 3 bed(s) /2 1/2 bath(s) 3,920 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $998,888 MLS: 80809927 2503 CARMELITA AV Detached Single Family (Class 1) 2 bed(s) /1 bath(s) 5,829 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $699,000 MLS: 80809521 108 NORTHAMPTON LN Detached Single Family (Class 1) 3 bed(s) /2 1/2 bath(s) 3,077 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $875,000 MLS: 80810653 1850 ALDEN ST Detached Single Family (Class 1) 2 bed(s) /1 bath(s) 5,200 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $798,800 MLS: 80813453 1836 EL VERANO WY Detached Single Family (Class 1) 3 bed(s) /2 bath(s) 6,864 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $799,999 MLS: 80814548 1500 EL VERANO WY Detached Single Family (Class 1) 4 bed(s) /3 bath(s) 12,580 sq ft  Belmont (Belmont)  $1,325,000 MLS: 80804800 ** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

Redwood City Homes--A sign of market stabilization?

↑Redwood City’s housing market looked slightly more stable in June than in recent months. The median price rose to $862,944, a 5.3% increase over May. That’s still down from just a year ago when the median home price stood at $945,000.

↑The month’s supply of homes—the number of months it would take to liquidate all existing inventory at the current rate of sales—dropped to only 4.3 months from 5.3 in May. A year ago the supply was a paltry 2.3 months indicating a strong seller’s market last year.

↑The month’s supply of homes dropped because sales picked up. June is typically the biggest month for closings—generally from sales generated in May. June saw 52 homes closing escrow while in May there were only 42, and 68 for this time a year ago.

↑The percent a seller can expect to receive of their asking price was up slightly to 98.6%, still under last year’s 101.2% and it continues to take twice as long to sell a home. Homes stayed on the market on average for 52 days in June of this year as compared to only 24 days last year.

↓Inventory, or the number of available homes for sale, continues to be a driving factor in impacting how long a home takes to sell and what the seller receives. Inventory levels in June of 2008 are nearly 40% higher than a year ago. Large inventories are an indication that home values will remain soft.

(Click on the picture for a full size view)

↑= a growth indicator

↓= a retraction in housing

↔= virtually no change

↗= possible housing growth indicator

↘=minor housing retraction indicator

*source San Mateo County Multiple Listing Service. © MorganHomes.com 2008—all rights reserved.

Peninsula Real Estate-A Market Update 7/8/2008

San Mateo County posted some interesting numbers for June 2008. Looking at the entire county is valuable since it’s a large market representation. In other words, small market sample idiosyncrasies have less impact in skewing the numbers. That said, San Mateo County also is comprised of radically varying micro-markets and therefore the overall numbers do not reflect any one particular city’s true performance.

For example, while San Mateo County’s median home price rose 11.8% in June of 2008 over the prior month of May, in Menlo Park the median price rose 28% while in Daly City it dropped 5.6%. Compared to June of 2007 it’s still down 12% for the county as a whole. So while some areas continue to see appreciation and growth, other areas are dragging down the numbers. Of course another way to look at it is areas like Menlo Park are artificially propping up the drastic drops in areas such as Daly City.

This graph illustrates the huge difference in local markets located within a few short miles of each other. Chances are if you don’t live in either of these two cities, the statistics for your city fall somewhere in between.

Median price comparison for Menlo Park and Daly City dating back six quarters. Source Multiple Listing Service San Mateo County. ©2008 Drew Morgan all rights reserved.

Belmont Market Report-June 2008

Not that you have to worry about reading it in the print media anytime soon, but just to give you a head’s up the reported median price for Belmont in June fell from $1,098,750 in May to $892,500  or 18.7% in June. Of course we’re here to put that stunning decline in perspective.

Smaller homes sold in June as compared to May skewing the median price as smaller homes tend to sell for less. The median size home in June was a whopping 390 square feet smaller than in May. At the going rate of $530.00 per square foot that accounts for $206,700 of price differential. Accounting for this, the adjusted median price for June would be $1,099,200—statistically unchanged.

(Click on the graph for a full-size view)

↑Sale were up slightly as there were 20 sales in June compared to 17 in May

↔The number of homes selling at or above asking stack up like this:

	May 2008	June 2008	Δ
Sold Over Asking	5	4	-1
Sold at Asking	1	3	+2
Sold Under Asking	11	13	+2

In Summer, homes historically sell for less in Belmont in terms of the seller’s asking price so we’re scoring this as essentially no market indicator one way or another.

With half of the year over and behind us there’s not been a huge change in values despite the mortgage woes and higher than typical inventory. Foreclosures have had little impact on Belmont’s home values as the lending practices which gave rise to the current state of affairs in many areas of the country simply didn’t apply to Belmont’s more expensive median price point.

The question becomes not when will the market recover but when will it hit bottom. Our intuition tells us that the market will languish at the bottom for awhile before any appreciable median price increases take place. Of course it’s entirely possible we are already at the bottom, or that the bottom has passed—only time will tell. But Belmont’s market indicators seem to be suggesting that we are in a housing lull and perhaps what was going to happen to our market already did.

*One note on the above chart. The home on South Road sold but with a lease option. We estimated the selling price to complete the statistics since the monthly lease payment was recored in MLS, not the actual agreed upon purchase option price.

Full market reports are available by the tenth of each month at MorganHomes.com