Beautiful Mountain Blog of Belmont

Belmont-July 2009 Home Sales (by request)

We’re posting the sales for Belmont from back in July at the insistence of one of our readers (thanks for being so patient). We skipped that month since we were so busy ourselves. Quite a few buyers came out of the woodwork in July and we noticed it on one of our listings in San Carlos that had multiple offers. In our estimation, the Peninsula real estate market has not recovered significantly enough to warrant such activity but the low interest rates probably spurred people into action—all at once.

At 24, July had the most sales and of any month this year.  The median price was also the highest it has been all year at $926,500. But just look at how many homes sold over a million dollars! There were some very large homes selling which definitely propped up the median price temporarily.  We’ll go out on a limb and say that will probably hold for the remainder of the year—and well into the next; mostly because of the seasonal nature of real estate.

The prices that the sellers accepted were far under what their homes were listed for, indicating some tough negotiations by buyers and capitulating by sellers. Fifteen of the 24 homes sold under asking for on average of $ 43,000 less.

Sales in July were still less than half of what they were just a few years ago when homes were flying off the shelves. Still, it’s nice to see a momentary blip—unless you are a buyer. Speaking of that, if you are a buyer, the best time to buy a home is coming up soon. Don’t start your winter hibernation too soon and miss out on what we expect will be some great deals in December and January.

Belmont Market Report--October 2009

Changes to the Belmont home market seemed to have slowed recently.

 

(click the graph for a full sized image) Data retreived from the MLS.

 MEDIAN PRICE

In 2008 the median home price stood at $960,000 in the month of October. This year, it has dropped to $865,000.

Once again the numbers are a bit misleading. The size home which sold last year in October was 150 square feet larger. The adjusted median home price for Belmont this year should be $938,000 which would put the median drop at a paltry 2.2% year over year.

DOM

The sellers in Belmont are still receiving around 99% of their asking price, just that they have to ask a little less this year.

SALES

Sales dropped from September but were almost double what they were last year at this time--reflecting more confidence in the market. Of course this number may be influenced by a mad dash of buyers availing themselves of the $8,000 tax credit.

So far 1.2 million buyers have qualified for the $8,000 tax credit. 40% of those said they would not have considered buying a home without it. 70% said it weighed heavily on their decision to purchase e home. Really? All it takes is an $8,000 credit and people are willing to buy a home?

The graph below shows the sales in Belmont for the month of October 2009. Since homes are sometimes relisted, the total days on market and original list price totals can be skewed. We searched the records and reported the actual data—noted by the green dots in the columns. This helps portray a more accurate picture of the time it takes to sell a home and the price a seller receives. Of the 14 sales in October one sold for asking in ten days. Seven sold for less than asking and were on the market an average of 113 days when they received, on average, ~$14,000 less than their LOWERED asking price. The sellers that appropriately priced their home fared much better, receiving on average $2,000 more than their asking price (we defined pricing a home right when it sells within the first month) and sold on average in only 33.5 says. More money, faster sale, one wold think every seller would try to price their home right.

 

Belmont Home Sales--September 2009

Belmont closed out the month of September with less than a stellar performance. There were 18 sales which is respectable--a couple more than last month--but still shy of even a normal market.

Is this still a Buyer’s market? We think so.

 

 

 

 

(Click on thechart to see an enlarged version).

 

Look at the percent a seller receives of their asking price. Few homes are selling over the asking price and if they are it's usually because the home is deeply discounted in the first place.

Another sign is the time a home languishes on the market, as expressed in Realtor speak as D.O.M. or Days on Market. Currently it stands at 45 days with six of the sales being listed for 3/4 of a year or more. One sale had to of broken the all time record when it finally closed after being on the market 700 days!

The median price took another beating in Belmont as the raw numbers show another 5% decrease over July values. Adjusted for smaller or larger homes selling, that percent is halved, but still, a 2.5% decrease is a downward trend that we hope will soon slow.

Belmont Home Sales -- August 2009

August turned out to be a respectable month for Belmont sales with at 16 it was just one sale shy of last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DOM

You might notice a few oddities in the Days on Market stat. First, our MLS did away with Original Days on market vs. Days on Market as they felt it was simply too confusing. Original Days on market counted from when the home was first listed for sale and the old DOM stat simply kept tract of the most recent listing. Now, the DOM stat is for as long as the home was listed for sale—even with various brokers—with the caveat that if a home was de-listed for more than 30 days it resets to zero.

Percent of Asking

True to form homes that languish on the market received less than their faster selling counterparts. Note that of the ten homes that sold in their first 25 days of being listed did not have to lower their price with six selling on average for $23,000 over their asking and the remaining four for $22,000 under.

Of the six homes that were listed for more than 25 days ALL sold for under their ORIGINAL asking price—on average the seller received $86,000 less or 97% of asking as compared to well priced homes which received 104% of asking (Read was originally listed at $1,125,000 and Arroyo at $769,000 before being re-listed at a lower number that skews the results).

Median Price

The median price of homes selling in August was $837,500 and the median size home sold was 1655 square feet. Last month the median price was $917,000 but the home sold were larger at a median point of 1,860 square feet.

Last year in August the Median price was $947,000 but the size home was also much larger at 2,030.

If you work out the numbers the values really haven't changed much at all over last August, though for the entire year they are down closer to 12%.

The fall selling season is just getting started with another full quarter soon to review. If you are thinking of selling this year now’s the time to take action—the best time is between now and Thanksgiving.

Belmont - June 2009 stats

It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.

	May-09	Jun-09	Δ from May	Jun-08	Δ from '08
Median	$840,000	$878,000	$38,000	$877,000	$1,000
DOM	46	25	21	43	18
Month's Inventory	4	3	1	3	0
Sales	14	21	7	20	1
Inventory	62	62	0	61	1
% Received	98%	98%	0.0%	91%	7.00%
Median Size Home	1,710	2000	290	1600	400
Price per Sq. Ft.	$502.00	$493.00	$9.00	$548.00	$55.00

Belmont Homes Sales - May 2009

What’s happening in our local market is the number one question we receive so here’s the good the bad and the ugly for May 2009 in Belmont.

The Good

The number of homes sold in creased in May to 15 from April’s paltry 12. Still, compared to 2004 when 32 homes sold there’s not a lot of activity.

The number of days it took to sell a home in Belmont went from 48 in April down to only 37 in May.

Of the 15 sales in May, 5 sold over the asking price, none sold at asking, and 10 sold under the seller’s asking price.

The Bad

Homes which were originally overpriced took a beating.

Overprice Homes	10	Homes Priced Well	5
DOM	76.8	DOM	18.8
Percent Received of Original List Price	89%	Percent Received of Original List Price	101.4%
Real Dollar change	$67,000 less	Real Dollar Change	$5,000 more

 

The number of overpriced homes reaching a factor of 2-1 over well priced homes is indicative of the disconnect between what sellers feel their home is worth as compared to what a buyer will actually pay. It’s clear by looking at the numbers though that the number one mistake a seller can make continues to be overpricing their home.

The Ugly.

The median price in Belmont continued its correction in May.

	May 2009	April 2009	May 2008	May 2007
Median Price	$820000	$775,000	$1,098,750	$1,036,733
* Corrected for size of home	$820,000	$855,000	$952,300	$1,106,533
May Δ in percent		-4.09%	-13.94%	- 25.89%

 

*We endeavor to report the true median price as accurately as possible. In doing so, we must take into consideration if larger or smaller homes are selling in a given period.

 

*Date retrieved form the Multiple Listing Service of San Mateo County.

Market Report--Belmont Home Sales April 2009

The homes sale report for April shows a continuing slide in both sales and median price for the Peninsula cities, though we appear to have a lull in the action.

Take the median price of single family homes in San Mateo County for example. In April of 2008 it stood at $925,000. This April that number came in at $610,000—a whopping 34% decrease. Sales have dropped 15% over last year at the same time and 40% off the peak of the market in 2005. Yet every month so far this year the median price has been creeping back up—ever so slightly. Exciting news? Not really. The median price almost without fail creeps up this time of year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Click on the image to see a full sized graphic) 

For Belmont, April home sales came in at a disappointing 13 for the entire month, a 38% decrease over last year’s more typical 21 sales for the month.

The median price came in at $775,000, considerably off of the $930,000 reported just last April. The size homes which sold last April were only slightly larger—3.7%. Which means that the calculated median home price loss of 16.6% might be closer to only 13%, if that makes anyone feel any better.

And don’t expect to get close to what you are asking. On average in Belmont sellers are receiving only 94.84% of their asking price and it is taking about 33% longer for them to get less for their home.  Don’t think that isn’t hurting agents too. Agents who are listing homes for sale are finding it takes longer to sell a home. Longer listing periods can mean thousands more in advertising costs and with values dropping, thousands less in commissions.

Click here to see April sales report for surrounding cities.

Belmont Housing Report--March 2009

The home sales are in for Belmont for the month of March 2009 and they exhibit all the indications of a continuing declining market. We wrote a short post on what the numbers mean when compared to the same period just a few years back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the same period just twoyears ago...

Belmont--A Month in Review January 2009

The first month of the year is in the books as we close out the sales for January 2009 in Belmont.

With 40 homes on the market, inventory is showing signs of creeping up. Looking at past January inventory levels, they typically hover in the low 20 range. Higher inventory levels usually means sellers will get less than their asking price as the supply and demand is in imbalance.

It’s always interesting for us to see why inventory levels are up. There can be several factors but they almost all have a common thread and that’s the market is slowing down.

Most buyers can easily get a loan, despite whatever impression from the media one might have. Sure you need to have a better credit score than last year, and you actually must have a downpayment now, but lenders are happy to make good loans and they’re doing so at a frenetic pace.

But if buyers are afraid that the market is tanking, or that they may be about of a job soon, they’ll sit on the sidelines and the inventory will grow.

Seller’s who think they had better get out now, or sadly ones who have perhaps already lost their job, need an exit strategy now—they can’t wait for the market values to return.

Together these factors cause inventory levels to grow and that has an inverse relationship on values.

In Belmont the median price has dropped below $900,000 for the last two months in a row; and though we occasionally dip down under $ 900K (due to a shift in the size of homes selling), one has to go back to 2004 to see the median price stay this low.

Belmont-Month in Review December 2008

We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.

This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in the median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.

Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).

Click on the chart for a readable picture.