The real estate market as a whole is still in its first stage of grieving—denial. 
Most are aware of the five stages of grieving; denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Denial set in as sellers refused to comprehend that the market that they so came to enjoy—a seller's market—vanished. Some are coming to grips with their anger knowing they should have sold a year earlier, and only a minority of sellers are to the point of bargaining (as depressed as they are about it) with buyers and accepting lower prices for their homes. These are the homes buyers should be seeking out.
Why aren't more sellers to the point of acceptance?
It's simple human nature to not acknowledge you timed a market wrong. Each real estate market cycle is different. In an attempt to predict the market's outcome we rely on past experience and historical records. But understanding the similarities is as important as examining the differences. One has to look to 1990 to find home sales as low as today. Are these two cycles similar? Let's examine the differences.
In 1990 the recession and the subsequent exodus of Bay Area jobs impacted home values as many sellers were forced to relocate when companies began downsizing. This sharp increase in inventory of available homes coupled with a recession, fewer jobs and decreasing consumer confidence led to a decline in the median home price.
Today's Bay Area sellers are not in the dire position many homeowners found themselves in the 1990's. Jobs are plentiful, and sellers would rather wait out the market than sell at a discount.
Then why are homes sales down in the Bay Area?
The perception that home values will soon drop in step with the many other regions has no doubt contributed to the reluctance of buyers committing to purchasing their first home.
But why hasn't the Bay Area experienced similar price declines that other regions?
There are several reasons that homes values are declining statewide. The main reason being the large number of homes which were financed with sub-prime loans now for sale and the sudden run-up in appreciation levels. This large inventory of first-time buyer homes which are available either through foreclosure or voluntary liquidation, coupled with more stringent lending practices has decreased demand and increased the supply. The sub-prime loan debacle certainly accounts for the majority of the decline in homes sales—statewide. But what about the Bay Area? Unlike many other parts of the state the sub-prime defaults have not impacted our area to the same degree as say the Central Valley. Primarily this is because most Bay Area homes were not purchased using sub-prime loans.
The Bay Area has historically fared better than many other regions due to the 
large demand for the quality of life it has to offer. It has also seen historically higher cost for housing. Further defining the market, the Peninsula specifically enjoys an attractive quality of life with low crime, excellent schools, shorter commutes to high paying jobs, mild weather and access to the ocean, beaches and three international airports. One need look no further than the commute traffic leading to the east bay and clogging the bridges to understand why people would rather live on the peninsula. It stands to reason that if Peninsula home values were to decline, values would decline in other regions first—prices quickly being filled buoying Peninsula home values.
What can the Peninsula housing market expect?
If history is any indicator, the Peninsula will ride out the current market adjustments with less impact than other regions. The chart below suggest that although there are certainly small peaks and valleys in the median price of homes, the overall increase in the Bay Area is significant and more isolated from volatile market fluctuations as compared to the state or country as a whole.
Interest rates remain extremely favorable, jobs are on the increase, and though we expect appreciation levels to drop since the first-time home buyer affordability index is so low, we expect to see a relatively flat market through the first quarter of 2008. It appears to be only a matter of time before home values rebound.
Let's look back.
In 1996 the Bay Area housing market began a steady climb after years of remaining flat. The market decline began in 1990 which coincided with the aforementioned recession, but remained flat well after the recession was over in 1991. From 1993 to 1996 there was no logical reason why buyers should not purchase a home. What kept buyers at bay was the fear of having just seen home values drop off their precipice is 1989. Eventually though, smart buyers gradually returned to the housing market and those who purchased a home when the market was flat, were in an excellent position when the market began its historic climb in 1996.
It's interesting to note that in after five consecutive years of waning appreciation levels the lowest level was reached in 1995—only $6,000 off of the high in 1989.
So when should a first time buyer get into the market? When they can afford to. When they feel their job situation is secure. Smart buyers don't follow the herds—they seek opportunities. Playing a game of timing the absolute bottom of any market is pure guess work. When the media reports that home values are on their way up, buyers have already missed an opportunity.
Want to discuss this? Reply, email or call us and we'd be glad to consult with interested buyers or sellers.
Belmont Greek Festival - Free Tickets Just for Asking
It’s that time of the year again for the Greek Festival in Belmont.
Each Labor Day weekend the Greek Orthodox Church hosts its annual Greek Festival at the Church of the Holy Cross at the corner of Ralston Avenue and Alameda de las Pulgas. This year, the Greek Festival in Belmont will be held September 3th-5th 2011- Saturday, Sunday from 12:00 PM to 10:00 PM and Monday noon-8:00 PM . If you love to try great food and spirits you’ll be in heaven. The Greek Festival never disappoints when it comes to entertainment for the whole family.
As a supporter of the Greek Festival, we have complimentary tickets for you and your family. Simply use this form to request your tickets and we’ll get them to you A.S.A.P.
Here’s some more information on the event from their web site…
Find the meaning of kefi (joy) in this three-day true Greek extravaganza. The Belmont Greek Festival will feature delicious Greek meals and desserts, nonstop music and dancing, exciting exhibition folk dancing, choral folk singing, a captivating mythology play, a fun children’s amusement area, and children’s entertainer Andy Z.
Up to 20,000 people are expected to attend, festival organizers said. All guests will receive a special 40th Anniversary commemorative program book containing articles about Greek culture, recipes, Greek language phrases, information about the festival’s history and photos from past festivals.
“Greeks are famous for their hospitality,” said Festival Co-Chair Gary Brenner. “Our Belmont festival was the first Greek festival in Northern California, and we’re so proud to welcome guests of all ages to our 40th celebration weekend.
“It all starts with lots of fantastic, mouth-watering food and drink,” Brenner continued, “and it keeps on going with the fun and excitement of our dancing, music and theater. Before you know it, you’ll be shouting, ‘Opa!’ just like the Greeks.”
Some of the favorite festival menu items will include souvlakia (Greek shish-kebab), barbecued lamb chops (with special Greek seasonings), spanakopita (spinach and cheese stuffed inside layers of filo pastry) and dolmades (grape leaves wrapped around ground beef and rice). Not forgetting the best Greek salad west of Athens, and roast lamb – the festival will feature 10 spit-roasted whole lambs turned for hours by hand before visitors’ eyes!
There will also be traditional homemade Greek pastries such as loukoumades (doughnut holes covered with honey), baklava (layers of nuts and filo pastry soaked in honey), kourambiedes (crescent-shaped butter cookies covered with powdered sugar) and galactobouriko (filo pastry filled with custard and covered with syrup).
Visit the taverna to sample Greek libations such as ouzo (anise-flavored aperitif), retsina wine and Metaxa brandy, and enjoy special wine tastings featuring Greek and American labels. Draft microbrewery beer and bottled Greek beer will also be offered to complement your meal, or just enjoy a glass sitting on the plaka (central plaza) while watching fellow visitors dance.
Cooking demonstrations will be offered daily – learn the secrets of Greek cooking and bring the benefits of a Mediterranean diet home!
Visitors also will enjoy continuous music from a live Greek band so they can dance the traditional kalamatiano, tsamiko, zeimbekiko and other Greek dances. The amazing “Sons of Ulysses” will dazzle the audience by lifting tables and chairs with nothing but their teeth!
In addition, several award-winning folk dance groups will perform throughout the weekend in their colorful, hand-made costumes. In an outdoor amphitheater reminiscent of the ancient theaters of Greece, children and adults alike will enjoy a special drama production featuring the heroes and villains of Greek mythology. The popular Festival Singers and Folk Ensemble will also perform Greek folk songs in the amphitheater.
Look for the Fun Zone children’s area in the shadow of the windmill, boasting games, rides, bouncy castles, crafts and more, just for young people. Don’t miss nationally-known children’s favorite Andy Z, a local singer-songwriter-guitarist who brings his award-winning show to the amphitheater on Saturday and Monday.
Tours of the award-winning Byzantine-style church, including the recently-installed mosaic iconography, will be given throughout the weekend, and the Holy Cross Church Liturgical Choir will sing during the church tour on Sunday at 2:00 PM.
Speak Greek? Visit the Greek Language School’s cultural booth, malista (yes)! Other festival highlights will include art, clothing, jewelry and gift boutiques, as well as religious icons and a bookstore.
The Church of the Holy Cross supports many charitable groups throughout San Mateo County, and each year, the church donates a portion of the festival proceeds to several local charities. Previous recipients of festival donations have included Samaritan House, Interfaith Network for Community Help (INCH), Children’s Advocacy Council, local schools and churches and the Belmont mayor’s choice of charity. In addition, Holy Cross Church sponsors several children from the Children’s Receiving Home of San Mateo County as special guests of the festival.
The hours of the Belmont Greek Festival are Saturday, September 4, and Sunday, September 5, from Noon to 10 PM, and on Monday, September 6, from Noon to 8 PM. The Fun Zone for children closes at 7:00 PM all three days. The Agora (our "White Elephant" room) closes at 6:00 PM all three days.
Admission is $5 for adults and $2.50 for seniors and youth ages 13-17. Children 12 and under are admitted free, accompanied by a parent or guardian.
For more information, explore their website further, or call (650) 591-4447. Yassou!
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