Beautiful Mountain Blog of Belmont

Belmont--Week in Review November 30, 2008

Belmont's housing market is experiencing slower than usual seasonally adjusted sales as other harder hit areas in our nine county region are experiencing large increases. This sounds worse than it is as Belmont's home values are holding up rather well.

Listen to our Podcast to get a review of November's housing market nuances. > 

 

NEW LISTINGS

1309 Sunnyslope—2 Bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home on a 4,410 Sq. Ft. lot

This home won’t be toured until next Tuesday and there are no open houses listed as of yet There are some photos if you care to click on the address link. Side note—this home sold back in June of 2003 in multiple offers. It was listed at $599,000 and sold for $611,000. Listed By Charles Floyd, Help-U-Sell Floyd Realty

Belmont—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,040 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,300 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $859,000 (sold back in July of 2002 for $580,000). This home has a bonus space which has been rented out for $800.00 per month. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. For some reason, the seller did not want the address disclosed but if you are driving around Belmont (headed towards San Mateo) you may recognize this home. Listed By Michael Vigo, Michael F. Vigo, broker.

PENDING SALES

2824 Hallmark Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,400 +/- Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,900. This is of course our own listing and all contingencies have been removed. It’s now scheduled to close on December 5, 2008 and we’ll be sure and update you with the details then! Listed By Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates

 

 

 

3414 Beresford Ave. 2 Bed 1 Bath 890 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $649,000 and received an offer in 22 days. You can bet this home sold for less than the asking price—it needs a lot of work. Listed By Rosa De La Rosa, Regency Prime Properties Inc

3901 Christian Drive—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,660 Sq. Ft. home. Here’s the listing history for this home:

80841052	11/25/2008	Pend Rel	12/31/2008	03/31/2009	Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)	$843,000
80841052	11/05/2008	Active		03/31/2009	Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)	$843,000
80841052	10/21/2008	Active		03/31/2009	Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)	$868,000
80823845	09/08/2008	Cancelled		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$899,000
80823845	09/08/2008	Cancelled		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$899,000
80823845	08/11/2008	Active		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$899,000
80823845	08/11/2008	Active		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$899,000
80823845	07/24/2008	Active		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$929,000
80823845	07/24/2008	Active		12/24/2008	Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)	$929,000

Wow—that was a long hard road to a sale. Listed By Ron J. Bonhagen Sr., Intero Real Estate Services

1909 Lyon—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,629 Sq. Ft. home. Another home with a long listing history:

80845560	11/25/2008	Pend Show	12/10/2008	02/01/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$865,000
80845560	11/25/2008	Pend Rel	12/10/2008	02/01/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$865,000
80845560	11/16/2008	Active		02/01/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$865,000
80845560	11/15/2008	Active		02/01/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$869,888
80843341	11/10/2008	Cancelled		03/31/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$875,000
80843341	11/03/2008	Active		03/31/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$875,000
80836808	11/03/2008	Cancelled		03/29/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$889,000
80836808	10/27/2008	Active		03/29/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$889,000
80836808	10/27/2008	Active		03/29/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$879,000
80836808	10/10/2008	Active		03/29/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$889,000
80836808	09/29/2008	Active		03/29/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$912,000
80830767	09/29/2008	Cancelled		02/28/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$912,000
80830767	08/29/2008	Active		02/28/2009	Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)	$912,000

This was listed by Celeste Pagan in our Carlmont Associates office. Listed By Celeste L. Pagan, Carlmont Associates

SOLD HOMES

2812 Wakefield Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,490 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $ 1,388,831 and lowered to $1,359,531 after 12 days and finally sold for $1,360,000 within 14 days of being reduced.

This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates. Download WIR 11.30.2008

Market Update-11.24.2008

	Drew & Christine Morgan   Housing Update--November 2008				(650) 508-1441 dmorgan@morganhomes.com
About us	Home	Find A Home	Find an Open House	What's My Home Worth?
San Mateo County continues to out performed many of the nine bay area counties but a protracted deep recession could change all that. Join us for our Podcast series now available at BeautifulMountainBlog.org     We’re very excited to bring you a new animated version of our graphs depicting the various housing market trends in San Mateo County and the cities which lie within. Each month we download data from our Multiple Listing Service and analyze the market indicators. We provide this in-depth analysis for several of the many cities we serve on the Peninsula. We’ve also added short audio tags to describe what we are depicting and help put the information in perspective. Another feature will be our “Weekly Graph”. We’re not saying it will change each week but when an interesting trend develops you’ll find it under that tab. We hope you’ll take a moment to check out our new graphical interface on our “How’s the Market?” link and give us some feedback.

What's that big Blimp doing in the Bay Area sky?

Look, It’s a bird, it’s a plan no it’s a Dirigible?

Actually it's not a blimp at all. Look to the skies on a calm day around the Bay Area and you just might spot the world’s largest Zeppelin in your neighborhood. What’s it doing here? It was the brain child of Brian and Alex Hall to offer sightseeing flights around the Bay area. This lofty business venture got its start in 2006 when Brian first rode in a Zeppelin while in Germany and immediately was hooked. First, an order needed to be place for only the fourth Zeppelin NT in the world. Then, just two years later on October 23, 2008 the Zeppelin “Venture” was launched from Moffet field. This isn’t your mother ship Hindenburg; it’s filled with Helium instead of Hydrogen and uses gas engines to propel itself through the skies at lightning speeds up to 35 MPH. The Zeppelin NT07 airship can carry up to 12 passengers and is the largest airship flying in the US. At 246 feet in length, it is more than 50 feet longer than the largest blimp. It uses inert gas helium for lift, and vectored thrust engines for flight. So what’s the difference between a Blimp and a Zeppelin? Blimps are non rigid dirigibles and Zeppelins are rigid (and can carry more passengers). The Hindenburg by contrast was much larger and filled with Hydrogen (an extremely volitile gas). At 805 ft long, it could carry 73 passengers and flew at a blazing 80 MPH. Oh, and any DIRECT-IBLE flying machine can be called a dirigible.

 

(I took this picture out of my sunroof while in San Mateo)

Belmont--Week in Review for November 22, 2008

Belmont’s housing picture settled down a bit as homeowners who had stalled temporarily in the wake of October’s housing news began to list their homes for sale for a pre-winter push.

→NEW Click on the play button to hear a brief market overview.

 

There are 53 homes for sale in Belmont, down from 57 in the last several weeks.

Five new listings have recently hit the market, three have been re-listed and there were three that closed escrow as well.

ACTIVE HOMES

1943 Hillman—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 2,969 Sq. Ft. home on a steep up slope 8,500 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $1,195,000. OK, the lot is steep and if you don’t mind stairs you’ll actually find a level rear yard area out back. Nicely appointed home with remodeled kitchen. Listed By Val Shevelyov, Quest Real Estate OPEN HOUSE INFO NOT AVAILABLE.

 

 

 

528 Davey Glen—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,190 Sq. Ft home on a 7,350 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $1,139,000. Davey Glen is a busy street with mixed use (i.e. Condos, homes, businesses).Note—this home last sold in 1997 for $479,500. And who says Peninsula Real Estate is a bad investment. Listed By Bryce Cook, RE/MAX Today OPEN SUNDAY 11/23 1:00-4:00

1902 Miller Ave.—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,030 Sq. Ft. home on a 9,800 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $999,999. This home has a nice setting and is reminiscent of the Brady Bunch home of the 1970’s—though it has been updated. Listed By Wendy Grainger, Wendy P. Grainger, Broker OPEN SUNDAY 11/23 1:00-4:00.

3402 Lower Lock—3 Bed 2 Bath home on a 5,500 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $899,888. This home shows impeccably and has a very nice secluded rear level yard. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker OPEN SUNDAY 11/23 from 1:40-4:30.

1941 Alden Street—3 Bed 1 Bath 1,330 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,500 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $ 865,000. Nice updated ranch home and it shows rather well. Elevated in the rear—level; yard below. The street is moderately busy. Listed by Debbie Sharp, Alain Pinel Realtors OPEN SUNDAY 11:23 1:00-4:00 and again on 11/30 (same times).

 

 

1021 Elmer Street (no photos)—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,250 Sq. Ft. home on a level 5,000 Sq. Ft. lot in Sterling Downs (AKA east side of El Camino). LISTED for $689,000. This is a pre-foreclosure sale bargain hunters start your engines… Listed by Cameron Thompson, Alain Pinel Realtors OPEN SUNDAY 11/23 2:00-4:00 and again on 11/30.

 

RE-LISTED HOMES

2007 Monroe Ave. 2 Bed 1 Bath 930 SQ. Ft. home on a 4,000 Sq. Ft. lot. RE-LISTED for $655,000 with no price reduction. This home has potential. Don’t let the 930 Sq. Ft. scare you away—it has a bonus room below which adds another 250 Sq. Ft. probably. Listed By Peter Vece, Dumas & Company

 

 

 

1909 Lyon Ave. 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,629 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,150 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $865,000 down from $869,888. The real price reduction was from $912,000 back in August. This home is now a very good deal and someone should jump on it. Nicely appointed and very clean. It has a level rear yard on a ½ level down access. Listed By Celeste L. Pagan, Carlmont Associates NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED.

 

2422 Hastings Dr. 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,250 Sq. Ft. home and a 4.032 Sq. Ft. lot RE-LISTED for $1,108,000 (same as before).These homes are along Hasting Drive and they are usually attached, though some are technically detached. This one has a canyon view and it’s an end home on the block so it has a neighbor on only one side and great canyon views out the other two (the front has a street view). It started at $1,038,000 back in August 2008 and was lowered to $1,018,000. It didn’t sell and a new agent listed the home at the same price. Listed By Jun Kyu Chung, East West Realty

 

SOLD HOMES

↑1500 Escondido Way—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,080 Sq. Ft. home on a 17,120 Sq Ft. Lot LISTED for $1,250,000 SOLD for $1,375,000 in 12 Days. This home was unique in that it has a huge level lot and is located near downtown on one of Belmont’s premiere secluded cul-de-sac streets. The only negative to this home was it backed up to Ralston Ave. and Chula Vista so it does get some street noise. Other than that, it’s a one-of-a-kind home and worth every penny they paid over for the home.

↓1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home on a 4,320 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $995,000 originally. It was lowered to $925,000 after three weeks and two weeks later it received a contract and SOLD for $900,000.

It’s interesting to note that the two homes above were both remodeled yet the smaller one received $425,000 more. One can never underestimate the allure of a park-like level rear yard. It’s also interesting to note that appraisers typically will allow only $5.50 per square foot credit for land. At that rate Escondido should have only received $970,000 rather than the $1,375,000 it did. Clearly appraisers are way off on estimating the value of usable land vs. just land (i.e. a sloping lot).

↓809 North Road—3 Bed 1.5 Bath home LISTED for $629,900 SOLD for $607,402 in Nine days. This was a great starter home on the west side of El Camino.

This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.

Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.

Download WIR 11.22.2008

Belmont--Holiday Season Events

Twin Pines Holiday Craft Faire - Nov 22 & 23 10 am - 4 pm - Twin Pines Park   Belmont's City Parks and Recreation department would like to remind you about some fun, free and low cost events coming up. The Holiday Craft Faire in Twin Pines Park, Belmont, is on Sat. and Sun., November 22nd and 23rd - FREE for visitors! Many vendors with all handmade items, all price and interest ranges.   When: Saturday & Sunday,  November 22nd & 23rd, 2008 Time:  10:00 am to 4:00 pm Location:  20 twin pines lane, Belmont, ca  94002 Info:  the faire will be held in 3 buildings at the beautiful twin pines park - twin pines senior & community center, lodge building and cottage.

 

Unveiling our NEW Fusion charts!

We’re very excited to bring you a new animated version of our graphs depicting the various housing market trends in San Mateo County and the cities which lie within.

Each month we download data from our Multiple Listing Service and analyze the market indicators. We provide this in-depth analysis for several of the many cities we serve on the Peninsula.

We’ve also added short audio tags to describe what we are depicting and help put the information in perspective (Click on the play button to hear a brief introduction).

Another feature will be our “Weekly Graph”. We’re not saying it will change each week but when an interesting trend develops you’ll find it under that tab.

We hope you’ll take a moment to check out our new graphical interface on our “How’s the Market?” link and give us some feedback.

When A Little Common Sense Goes A Long Way

I found the picture that accompanied the article in the San Francisco Chronicle, Saturday November 15^th 2008 title “Increase in Deaths, injuries on dangerous San Francisco Streets”  a bit symptomatic of the problem.

The article is reciting the statistics on just how dangerous the streets are for pedestrian and bicyclists and the picture shows a pedestrian walking right out in front of a car without even looking at the driver of the vehicle which is poised to potentially run him over.

(click on the picture for a full-sized view)

Don’t get me wrong, in most accidents drivers are in fact at fault and hitting pedestrian accounts for more than half of the fatalities each year in San Francisco. That doesn’t mean we should subjugate personal responsibility or common sense for laws. Traffic lights are there to tell drivers they need to stop, and laws are there to help enforce that they do so, but if they fail to stop who really wants to be dead right?

I applaud Belmont for installing the flashing crosswalk signals to alert drivers that a pedestrian is about to cross. This extra “heads-up” could save many lives if it were employed in San Francisco. And while their proposal to install cameras to award citations for failure to stop will generate much needed traffic fine revenues, it will do little prevent accidents; remember the citations are given after the fact—once there has already been a violation. That said, if the fines generate enough revenue to be self-sustaining or better yet offer extra revenue to fund lighted crosswalks I’m all in favor.

Not being privy to the statistics, intuitively, I’ll bet that the person who purposely runs a red light does so by just missing a yellow one. If the lights were timed with a little more delay, a pedestrian would not receive a green light until well after the opposing light had turned red. The real danger is in drivers who plow on through a red light oblivious to its warning, well after the driver should have stopped—giving pedestrians ample time to wander out in front of an oncoming car.

When I was a child my mother taught me to stop, look and listen before crossing a street. Somehow those simply life saving lessons have been lost as people become more reliant on traffic lights and less reliant on common sense—traffic signals do not substitute for common sense and personal preservation. Sure people are supposed to stop, but pedestrians fail to remember that sometimes they don’t, or can’t always do so.

I’ve driven around Belmont for many years and I’m always amazed as I approach an intersection to see for example, a mother with a stroller fixated on the WALK signal in front of her and not on whether I am poised to heed my signals. They’ll blindly push their stroller right out in front of my vehicle on the assumption that in a perfect world I will see the red light, heed the laws, that I will physically be able to stop and my car will mechanically be able to do so—should you really have that much faith in the average driver or the maintenance of their vehicles?

Look, listen, be aware of your surroundings and a lot of these accidents could be avoided.

King Chuan Dinner Giveaway Contest Winners

			Drew & Christine Morgan “Helping People Make Good Decisions”sm (650) 508-1441 dmorgan@morganhomes.com
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				Congratulations to Marc Smith winner of the dinner gift certificate for King Chuan. Runners up were Cheryl Hillard & Hongwei Tang who will receive a $5.00 Starbucks gift card. Don’t forget, King Chuan now delivers to Belmont FREE of charge and ordering on-line is a snap! Thanks for reading our blog and newsletter.

BELMONT--Week in Review for November 11, 2008

With no new listings for two weeks in a row, it’s nice to see a little activity before the winter market slows to a snail’s pace.

There was no agent "Tuesday tour" this week due the Veteran’s Day holiday so most of these homes we’ll not view in person until next Tuesday; and I won't be updating the week's activity until a week from Saturday--the normal day for my Belmont Update post.

Belmont has 53 homes currently for sale which is higher than normal for this time of year but with no new listings for two weeks in a row and four sales last week inventory should start to wind down.

Five new listings popped up recently and here they are:

3817 Naughton-4 Beds 3.5 bath 2,103 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,550,000

Naughton is a nice street and this home shows beautifully. This is a great home for people who do not need a large level yard but want nice views--though it does have a level yard area out back. Also, if you are adverse to climbing stairs this home is not for you. OPEN SAT 11/15 1:00-4:00 & SUN 11/16 1:00-4:00 Listed By Bob Bredel, RE/MAX Today

 

 

2856 San Juan—3 Beds 2 Bath 1,540 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,088,000

Situated on a relatively busy section of San Juan, but on a very large 16,670 Sq. Ft. lot. Though a lot of that is sloped up in the rear so it’s not really usable. The home has been upgraded very nicely. Still, it seems priced a tad bit on the high side. Listed By Richard Beale, Beale Properties NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED.

 

2614 Read.—4 Beds 4+ Bath 2,800 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,000,000. The sad story is this is a short sale. It was purchased back in July of 2006 for $1,233,000 and they put a lot of work into it since. This is one of those Belmont homes with a bungee line to the rear yard. Listed By Bryan H. Yoshida, Provida Mortgage & Realty, Inc NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED.

 

 

1308 Academy—3 Beds 2.5 Bath 3,400 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for 998,000

I did a little reconnaissance on this home since they haven't posted any pictures or tours on-line. Frankly the home is not ready to be shown just yet but I've included a sneak peak that I took with my own camera.

Listed by Eda Diridon in our office at 3,400 Sq. Ft. on a 9,150 Sq. Ft. lot in the heart of Belmont’s Country Club area this home has a small creek which runs through the rear yard. There’s a nice deck at ground level and some flat yard area. The home has a dramatic setting with soaring windows that look out upon your own miniature park. It needs updating, but this is a good deal for the size home. NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED YET.

 

 

1905 Lyon—3 Beds 2 Bath 1,350 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $739,000.

What’s up with Lyon this year? There have been about five homes for sale this year alone. Too new to tour also but it looks to be a home that needs some updating. Listed By Kristin F. Leishman, Patriot Properties OPEN SUN 11/16 1:00-4:000

 

 

RE-LISTS

15 Kitte Lane—4 Beds 3 Bath 1,900 Sq. Ft. home on a 9,000 Sq. Ft. lot for $900,000. If this home seems familiar it should. It was listed back in April of 2006 for $1,355,000. It’s now a short sale approved at $900,000. So what’s the catch? It has a small landslide problem in the rear yard where it needs a retaining wall to prevent the creek from eroding the lot. Sounds horrible but it’s a simple engineering feat to the tune of $150,000 probably (my estimate). Other than that, it’s a great location and nice home. Listed By Marcin Pendzialek, House of Homes Realty & Mortgage

NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED

1218 North Road—3 Beds 2 Bath 1,543 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $825,000. This too should sound familiar but are you ready for this…back in August of 2007 it was listed for $1,250,000. No prices have not dropped that far they just overpriced it by a long shot. It’s a real cliff clinger home and a driveway that would give any normal driver cause for alarm. Nice views though and the price is in-line now for this completely rebuilt home. Listed By Michael Robles, Coldwell Banker-Burlingame OPEN SUN 11/16 2:00-4:00

SALES

↑2308 Casa Bona (pictured)-3 Beds 2 bath 1,570 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $899,000 SOLD for $925,000 in 4 days. This was a nicely remodeled home and priced to sell as you can see by the multiple offers.

↓3215 Upper Lock—3 Beds 2 bath 1,500 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $849,988 SOLD for $792,000 in 42 days. Why did this home sell for so much less than Casa Bona (above) being that they are virtually the same size? A) Casa Bona was totally remodeled and this home was all original—and it lacked the views.

↓809 North Road—3 Beds 1.5 Bath 1,160 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $629,900 and SOLD for $607,402 in 9 days. Nice clean starter home in a trailer park atmosphere neighborhood—hence the good price.

This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.

Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.

BELMONT-October 2008 Home Sale Report

The housing market is in a state of flux so we spent added time this month helping you understand the numbers and our local Belmont market:

(Click on the report for a size you can read)

 

Understanding the Belmont’s October 2008 housing market takes a lot more than listening to the numbers being bantered about without insight or analysis.

Read on, as we’ll tell you what these indicators mean and how to put them into perspective.

First the overall picture:

We rate each indicator with an arrow depending on its effect relative to increasing home values from a homeowner's perspective. From a buyer's perspective these indicators would all be reversed. In other words, if inventory levels are growing we would rate that with a down arrow since it would put pressure on lower prices—bad for sellers but good for buyers.

Here we explain each indicator:

MEDIAN SIZE HOME SOLD:

This gets a down arrow because the median size home INCREASED in 2008 yet the median home price dropped. If this is taken into consideration the true median home price in October would be $807,639—a 27% year-over-year drop.

AVERAGE LOT SIZE:

                This gets a plus arrow since it accounts for SOME of the discrepancy in the median price from 2007-2008. That’s because while the median home sold in 2008 was larger, the lots were smaller and while the lot size does not have as great an impact on the median price as the home size itself, one must account for this to help explain some of the change in median prices. It’s interesting to note for example that in 2008 none of the high priced homes which sold were in the more sought after area after referred to as “Hallmark”, or more accurately Belmont Woods, while in 2007 four of the 15 sales were in this area—no doubt accounting for some of higher home sale prices.

MEDIAN PRICE

                This is of course the mother of all data point often reported by media organizations. Not to beat a dead horse, but without more explanation this number alone could really throw you for a loop.

Yes the median home price is down significantly for 2007 but one needs to remember that back in 2007 this number was an anomaly and we discounted it back then as such.

The problem is that the median size home that sold this October is dramatically larger than back in 2007 which flies in the face of what the numbers are telling us unless there’s been a substantial decrease in median home values—which undoubtedly there has been—just not to the degree the numbers may be hinting at.

One reason has already been mentioned—the fact that no homes in the tony Hallmark are were included in October’s 2008 sales data. These homes have larger lots—many level—sidewalks, underground utilities and a highly rated elementary school. All factors that are hard to quantify in terms of real dollars, but certainly could explain why the price per square foot in 2007 was $563--$50 more than in 2008.

SALES

                Sales were virtually unchanged—one more this year than last. However, given consumer confidence, which is at its lowest point in its 23 year history at 38.0, this is a great sign since despite consumer worries the pace of homes sales as remained steady. In fact Belmont’s inventory of homes for sale has dropped in recent weeks; though some of the lower inventory is attributable to the fact that in the last two weeks NO NEW LISTINGS have come on the market—a first as far back as we can remember!

 

From the Consumer Confidence web site:

“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had improved moderately in September, fell to an all-time low in October. The Index now stands at 38.0 (1985=100), down from 61.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 41.9 from 61.1 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 35.5 from 61.5 in September.

“The Consumer Confidence Survey™ is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for October's preliminary results was October 21st.”

DAYS ON THE MARKET

                This stat tells us how long it takes to sell a home. At first glance it appears to have dropped by a few days this year which would be a sign that homes are selling faster. Further analysis reveals that the Total Days on Market (also referred to as the continuous days on the market) has actually increased. What can account for this? Simply put, more agents are playing the game of re-listing a home that has been sitting on the market too long. That resets the Days on Market stat which consumers see but not the CDOM stat that agents are privy too. Don’t worry, your agent must disclose the real CDOM if you are making an offer.

HOMES SOLD OVER/UNDER ASKING

                More homes sold over asking this year than last October but that isn’t important if prices are lower. This could just mean that more agents are pricing homes lower intentionally in order to bring more attention and get homes sold in multiple offers (yes multiple offers are still happening on well priced properties). What’s important to note here is that homes which sold over the asking price sold for half of the amount over in 2008 as they did in 2007; and homes that sold under the asking price sold for twice as much less in 2008 as compared to 2007. That’s definitely a sign a weaker market.

NUMBER/AVERAGE REDUCTIONS

                This number provides us with little insight this month as these two periods are virtually unchanged. It’s nevertheless a good sign that they haven’t increased significantly at all.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

                This number can also be misleading if homes are selling for significantly less, but closer to the asking price—this number could actually be higher in a down market. All it would take is for sellers to list their homes decidedly lower than market value, get multiple offers and create an environment where the homes sell over the asking price, yet lower in real dollars.

If you’ve gotten this far good for you. These are just some of the variables we take into consideration when analyzing our local market. So what does all this mean for home values in Belmont?

We expect prices to decrease year over year into 2009. On what magnitude? Probably not much since Belmont is insulated rather nicely on the Peninsula with no room for real growth and a relatively short supply of homes. Of course the impact of the current recession (yes we believe we are in a recession) and its affect on jobs will be a determining factor for inventory levels—if homeowners are forced to sell due to job relocation or losses and the market is flooded with homes for sale, with few new home buyer prospects prices could drop precipitously—in the neighborhood of 15%. Absent those dire conditions we expect a tamer drop of 6-8% through the third quarter of 2009. The next several years may remain flat in terms of appreciation has trepidatious buyers reluctantly return to the home buying market.

Other extraneous factors such as the cost of money could have a huge bearing on prices as well. Homeowner affordability is a key factor in bringing buyers into the market and while lower prices mean more buyers can afford homes, any increase in interest rates could easily wipe out the savings of lower home prices and forestall any market rebound.

This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation. Data retreived from the multiple listing service--ProLIstings, San Mateo County